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1/30/2026

Zack Cooper on Denial, Crisis Stability, and Being “Useful” Early

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Zack Cooper came to Asia strategy from an unconventional angle: not as a country specialist, but as a defense analyst who realized the hardest problem in the Pentagon wasn’t abstract theory—it was how to maintain deterrence in Asia as China’s capabilities grew. That functional starting point pushed him toward alliances, basing, and the operational realities that sit beneath the rhetoric.
In this conversation, Cooper breaks down deterrence by denial in plain terms, explains why crisis instability is often a symptom of weak deterrence, and argues that “bases vs. places” matters more than territorial obsession. He also offers a rigorous (and refreshingly candid) take on credibility—why costly signals matter, why “audience costs” may be changing, and what that means for U.S. signaling today.
We close with student-focused advice: what actually compounded for him early on, what it means to be “useful” as an intern, how to think about graduate programs without wasting years, and the book that most shaped how he thinks about power transitions.
​

-Zack Cooper is a Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and a lecturer at Princeton University.
​Getting Into the Work: From Defense to Asia
Benjamin Wolf (BW): I want to start by asking where you got into this work. What problem were you trying to solve when you first started focusing on Asia strategy—and what did you see that others were missing?
​
Zack Cooper (ZC): I first got interested in Asia in a very different way than most people in the regional studies world. Usually when people start working on Asia, they start out as country specialists. Maybe they’ve been living in part of Asia, or they’ve got family heritage from a certain part of Asia. They end up studying that country and language and living there.
I came at this from the other end of the spectrum—as a functional specialist rather than a regional specialist. I started out as a defense specialist, and I really wasn’t exactly sure what part of defense I was most interested in. But over the course of a couple of years at the Pentagon, it became pretty clear that by far the hardest challenge from a defense perspective was how to maintain deterrence in Asia, especially with regard to China. So I decided that’s really what I wanted to be spending my time on—because it was such a hard problem.
It took me a little while to figure out exactly what that meant. I don’t have a China studies background, so I didn’t feel well equipped to do China-specific work. But I ended up doing a lot of work on U.S. alliances and partnerships. And I got a little bit lucky: when I started to work on alliances and partnerships, a lot of the people in that world came more from the area studies background, so they didn’t have much of a defense background to be doing analytical work on specific defense issues. That gave me an opportunity to do something useful in the field that hadn’t been done as much. There were people doing it, but it was a smaller group—and I ended up leaning into that.

Early Career: Getting Into the Pentagon and the White House
BW: You mentioned your work in the Pentagon, and I know you’ve worked with the Department of Defense and the White House. What led you to those roles? Was it things you did during your undergraduate studies? If so, what were the specific things you were involved in that made you want to pursue that career?

ZC: When I was in undergrad, I managed to get some informational interviews with people at the Pentagon, the State Department, the White House, and the intelligence community. I asked them about their jobs and what they enjoyed most. It became pretty clear to me that the most important thing in Washington is understanding how government works—and that the only way I could understand that was by being in government.
So when I was an undergrad, I was determined to find a position where I could learn how government operates—or, in many cases, doesn’t operate. One of the things I ended up doing was an internship at the Pentagon before my senior year. I got lucky: very atypically, that turned into a job straight out of undergrad.
These days that’s a lot harder to get, but you have to remember this was still just a couple of years after the September 11th attacks. There were specific hiring authorities to bring on very junior people because the national security community needed warm bodies. That was a great opportunity for me to come in through a path that probably otherwise wouldn’t have been possible.

Teaching at Princeton: What Students Expose
BW: We’ll focus on your work at AEI soon, but first: you’re also a lecturer at Princeton. How has that experience informed the way that you explain today’s events—China, the Indo-Pacific? Have your students taught you anything that changes how you explain these complex topics?

ZC: Yes. As time has gone on, I’ve found teaching more and more valuable—and more and more interesting.
I learn two things from teaching. First: the way I teach is very reliant on readings. So every week I go back and do all the readings that the students are doing. I find that incredibly helpful because some of these foundational pieces are so rich that even if I’ve read something twenty times, reminding myself of the fundamental logic—how we think alliances work, what the basic logic of deterrence is—is really useful.
Second: you might think you understand a topic, but when you try to teach it, you find the flaws in your logic—because the students will find the flaws very quickly. Teaching is valuable for sorting out how to conceptualize an issue: where your understanding is strong, and where it’s weak.
And a third aspect I’ve enjoyed more over time is that policy work can be very hard in a different way. It’s difficult to tell if you had a direct effect on an outcome. Even if you’re sure you suggested an idea to a policymaker, when they do what you suggested, maybe they had the idea on their own. You’re never sure.
But when you’re teaching, you’re having a direct effect on people. You get near-term feedback, and it’s exciting to watch people you’ve taught learn something and apply it professionally. Over time, I’ve found that more and more rewarding.

BW: I recently spoke with Sarah Kreps, who’s a professor at Cornell, and she emphasized similar points—so it’s interesting to hear that consensus.

Deterrence by Denial: What “Denial” Means Operationally
BW: I want to get more concrete. In your writing, you’ve emphasized deterrence by denial. What does “denial” mean operationally? What exactly must China be unable to do—or what should the United States do?

ZC: One of the basic concepts of deterrence is the difference between deterrence by punishment and deterrence by denial.
Deterrence by punishment would be saying: we’re not going to physically stop you from doing something, but if you do it, we’re going to make the cost so prohibitive that you’ll wish you hadn’t. The classic example would be threatening a nuclear attack against an opponent who crosses a red line.
The alternative is deterrence by denial: if your opponent tries to do something you don’t want them to do, you’re going to physically try to stop them. You’re trying to convince them they won’t succeed if they try—not that you’ll punish them after.
The basic argument I’ve tried to make is that in Asia today, the U.S. is no longer as strong as it used to be. But one advantage we have is that we’re a status quo power. We don’t want fundamental changes in the order in Asia. Deterrence by denial can be very effective when you’re a status quo power—when you’re trying to convince the other side they can’t overturn the order.
In a conflict over Taiwan, that would mean signaling to China before conflict that they won’t be successful at taking and holding Taiwan—because that’s a very hard operational problem.
I’ll add one last thing: we have to be careful not to assume denial is a silver bullet. Some of what I’ve been working on recently is sketching out the limits of a denial approach. There are real limits. Sometimes you’re going to have to threaten punishment against an adversary like China as well. Like most things in the defense arena, it’s not binary. It’s how much focus you put on denial, how much on punishment, and in what situations.

Deterrence vs. Crisis Instability: Where’s the Line?
BW: How do you think about the trade-off between strengthening deterrence versus increasing crisis instability? What’s the line for you—what do you look for?

ZC: My view—different than some others—is that crisis instability sometimes happens because there’s an incentive to do a first strike. That can happen because the balance of forces is so even that whichever side strikes first has an advantage for the rest of the conflict.
One way to deal with that is to be stronger, in which case strengthening deterrence also strengthens crisis stability—from an American standpoint. Fundamentally, I think that’s the most important dynamic.
We thought a lot about this in the Cold War in the nuclear realm. But the U.S. is at risk to a first strike by China in part because it’s reliant on a small number of bases in Asia. If the U.S. increased the number of bases it operates from, that would make the U.S. less vulnerable to a first strike and might increase crisis stability.
So there are small, specific choices—like operating from a larger number of bases more frequently—that can increase crisis stability while increasing deterrence. In general, I think crisis instability happens when you have a weak deterrent hand to play. There are edge cases with direct trade-offs, but in general, the better deterrent we have, the more stable behavior we’ll see in crises.

Bases, Places, and the Greenland Question
BW: You mentioned increasing military bases. It’s interesting because that’s been part of the argument President Trump has pushed—capturing Greenland, and broader American territorial ideas. Michael Froman, the president of the Council on Foreign Relations, argued in a recent article, among others, that the U.S. doesn’t need to capture Greenland because it can establish bases without taking territory. He mentioned that at one point the U.S. had seventeen military bases in Greenland and now it’s down to one—and that was America’s choice.
What has been stopping the U.S. government from expanding those bases? What’s making them not want to expand?

ZC: My logic applies mostly in the Indo-Pacific theater. I’m not that concerned, in the near term, about Chinese activity in Greenland. There’s a lot the U.S. could do to manage that risk.
But part of the challenge for the United States is that we’ve had a transformation over the last eighty years—from a world in which the U.S. had its own sovereign facilities (bases on territory the U.S. controlled) to operating increasingly from facilities that other countries control on their own sovereign territory.
There are downsides: the U.S. has to enter into agreements with host nations, and those agreements are often more constraining than if the U.S. is operating from facilities it fully controls. But there’s also a long-term benefit: host countries are more likely to politically support U.S. operations from facilities if they aren’t U.S.-flagged bases, but rather local facilities that U.S. forces deploy from.
Over the last 30–40 years, we’ve seen a transition from what we’ve called “bases” to “places”—away from U.S. bases toward places the U.S. can operate. I think that’s a healthy trend. Some of what we hear from President Trump goes against that instinct, and we’re seeing the predictable reaction from allies and partners: they aren’t interested in the U.S. owning territory, but they are very happy to allow the U.S. to operate from their territory.
My view is we’d be better off focusing on the capabilities that flow from access to facilities rather than who owns the land—especially because in most cases, the land is owned by partners who are willing to let us do a lot from their territory as long as it’s in shared interests.

Credibility: Real Signals vs. Domestic Theater
BW: In my conversations with foreign service officers and ambassadors, and in the broader State Department sphere, there’s a lot of talk about credibility. From your perspective, where is credibility real versus performative? What actions actually move adversary beliefs, and what’s mostly domestic theater?

ZC: It’s a great question—and I don’t think we have great answers at the moment.
Academics have spent a lot of time thinking about credibility and signaling. One way they think about it is through the logic of costly signaling: for something to be credible, it should have to be costly. If it’s not costly, it doesn’t really send a signal your adversary takes seriously.
It can be costly in different ways. Two that we talk about most: sunk costs and audience costs.
Sunk costs are when you do something so expensive it wouldn’t make sense unless you were serious. For example, in the Persian Gulf War 35 years ago, the U.S. spent six months building up hundreds of thousands of troops at great expense opposite Iraq. It wouldn’t have made sense to do that unless the U.S. was serious about military action. That’s a sunk cost—an expensive signal you wouldn’t send if you weren’t serious.
Audience costs are tying your own hands as a leader. The classic example is a president making a major public statement—like President H.W. Bush saying of Iraq, “This will not stand.” He tied his hands. The logic is: there’s an election coming up, and if he backs down he pays a domestic political cost.
What’s hard right now is it’s not clear whether President Trump faces audience costs. Technically, he’s not up for another election, so maybe what he says doesn’t matter. But also, Trump supporters are pretty quick to shift their views when President Trump does it himself. That makes this unusual for academics. If he can’t generate audience costs, then his words don’t matter—and all that matters are actions you can observe and whether they’re costly. That makes it hard to signal convincingly.
This is a challenging moment for academics trying to think rigorously about credibility and signaling.

Student Advice: What Actually Compounds
BW: As we begin to wrap up, I want to turn to your early successes and advice for students. When you look back at your early twenties, what one skill—writing, methods, modeling, networking—ended up compounding the most, and why?

ZC: This is an easy one for me. The only thing in my early twenties that actually mattered was working really, really hard.
There may be other people who are incredibly skilled at that period of their lives—who can demonstrate how smart they are, and how well traveled. I think the only comparative advantage I had at 22 was that I was willing to work extremely long hours for very terrible pay.
A lot of my coworkers couldn’t do that. They had families. They couldn’t stay at work until midnight. They couldn’t work every weekend because their spouses wouldn’t allow it. I hate to say it, but for me, that was my only comparative advantage at the time.
It’s much harder, as somebody in mid-career, to work that hard now. So when you get an opportunity where you can demonstrate how hard you can work—and not every job cares, but in places like the White House and Pentagon it matters a lot—being able to show you’ll put in the time and effort was the most important signal I could send to coworkers and bosses about my willingness to get the job done to the best of my ability.

What “Being Useful” Means as an Intern
BW: You’ve worked across think tanks, academia, and government, and you’ve been around many young students through internships and fellowships. What does being useful actually mean for a student intern in this space? What deliverables do great interns produce that mediocre ones don’t?

ZC: I wish I could tell you that interns—and frankly, even young researchers—are given wonderful opportunities in think tanks or government or the private sector. Often that’s not the case, and that was certainly my experience when I was young.
For the most part, I was being asked to sit in meetings, get coffee, set up meetings, schedule, sometimes take notes. It didn’t require a lot of brain power. And yet doing those basic things well was a requirement to convince leadership they could give me a slightly harder task than making coffee for a senior official.
I often see anxiousness among young people—I absolutely felt this—to jump from basic requests to something more challenging. But if you can’t do the basic stuff well, or you can’t show you’re willing to put in the time to do the basic stuff well, you’ll never get the more challenging tasks.
So when you get an internship, the most important thing is to show not only that you’ll work hard, but that you’re a good teammate, you’ll do whatever needs to be done to make the organization successful. If you do that for a couple of months—or a couple of years—then you can get to step two: doing more substantive work. But step one is doing the basics, doing them well, and showing you can be trusted as part of a team.

The Graduate School Lesson He Wishes He’d Understood Earlier
BW: Is there anything you wish someone had told you as a student that would have saved you a lot of time in trial and error?

ZC: The one thing I wish I had fully understood is the difference between different types of graduate programs.
When I finished undergrad, I wasn’t sure I ever wanted to go back and do a graduate degree. My undergraduate degree felt too disconnected from the policy world I wanted to be in. But once I was in the policy world, the policy world felt too disconnected from academia—and we weren’t paying enough attention to the theoretical, foundational aspects of our work.
I thought blending those could best be done in a master’s program. I don’t want to suggest master’s programs are never useful—I teach in a master’s program, and there are situations where they’re valuable. But I didn’t realize early on that what a master’s program tends to teach you is how to consume research, not so much how to do new research.
I ended up doing a master’s and then a PhD because what I really wanted was to conduct new research. For people thinking about career transitions or professional development, master’s programs can be wonderful and can be stepping stones to other degrees. My wife and I met in a master’s program—she was doing a joint law degree and a master’s, and I switched to the PhD.
But I think people should think twice before treating a master’s as a terminal degree—and I wish I had understood that earlier.

One Book That Shaped How He Thinks
BW: Finally, if you had to recommend a book for someone interested in following your career path—or just name a book that has influenced you most—what would it be, and why?

ZC: The book that’s been most important to how I think about the world is a political science book that doesn’t get a lot of readership because it doesn’t fall neatly into the theoretical paradigms commonly taught. It’s by Robert Gilpin, and it’s called War and Change in World Politics. It’s about how and why countries rise and fall.
At a moment like we’re in in the United States—asking fundamental questions about America’s role, watching China rise rapidly over the last 30 or 40 years—this isn’t the moment to read books about a static, unchanging world. This is the moment to think about how change happens and what it looks like. Gilpin’s work has been foundational for me in trying to think in a logical, theoretically informed way about how that happens.

Closing
BW: Dr. Cooper, thank you so much for joining me. I’ve learned so much in just a short period of time. It’s been a real honor.
​
ZC: Of course. It’s been wonderful talking to you—thanks so much for having me on.

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1/27/2026

Sarah Kreps on AI, Drones, Guardrails, and the New National Security

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Sarah Kreps has built a career around one persistent problem: how technology reshapes—sometimes outright disrupts—national security faster than institutions can adapt. Shaped by her Air Force background and training at MIT, she’s worked across drones, cyber, AI, and even nuclear security, and she approaches each new “scary” technology with the same instinct: pattern-match across history, cut through hype cycles, and stay empirically grounded rather than swept up by either techno-optimism or techno-doomerism.
In our conversation, Kreps explains why she thinks less in terms of “persuasion” and more in terms of delivering usable evidence to the audiences positioned to act—militaries, governments, and the public. She traces her pivot from environmental security into what she calls the “bombs and bullets” side of the field during the era of Kosovo, 9/11, and Iraq, and describes how the think tank ecosystem and interdisciplinary collaborations (with philosophers, engineers, and computer scientists) keep her work tethered to real-world problems that can’t be solved from a single discipline.
We also dig into the hardest practical question: what guardrails around AI can survive contact with the battlefield. Kreps argues that “human in the loop” matters—but may be more indeterminate than policymakers assume, because we still lack strong data on how different people actually interact with AI decision-support under pressure. She closes with advice for students trying to contribute in the next year: cultivate breadth, learn to ask better questions, and rebuild mental discipline through deep reading—because in a world optimized for short-form input, sustained focus is becoming a rare advantage.

—Sarah Kreps is a professor at Cornell University and a scholar of technology and national security
The through-line: technology disrupting national security
Benjamin Wolf: I’d love to begin by asking: when you look across your work at the intersection of technology and national security, what’s the core question you keep coming back to—and why does it feel urgent right now?

Sarah Kreps: A lot of people ask what the through-line is for my work. Broadly, it’s the way technology is changing—sometimes disrupting—national security.
The motivation comes from my background in the military. I was in the Air Force. I did my training at MIT. So these ideas—technology and national security—are very much embedded in how I think about things. I’ve worked on everything from drones to cyber to AI to nuclear weapons.
I have a book coming out on these questions about how technology has disrupted national security. In it, I try to pattern-match—to think about hype cycles, the tech optimists and the tech pessimists—and position myself in ways that are historically and empirically grounded.
The reason it feels important now is that what’s “relevant” keeps changing. In each moment, a different technology seems scary and disruptive. I’m trying not to offer simple solutions, but to frame questions: what can we, as a society—and as a national security establishment—do to temper the excesses of technology while harnessing the opportunities?

Audiences and institutions: not persuasion, but usable evidence
BW: You’ve moved between institutions and audiences—academia, law and policy communities, and public-facing writing. How do you decide who you’re speaking to on a given project, and what changes when the audience changes?

SK: I’ve never thought of myself as trying to persuade anyone. I would frame it instead as bringing insights to audiences that are in a position to protect society and take advantage of opportunities.
Sometimes that’s members of society—how can they guard against disingenuous AI? Sometimes it’s militaries—how can they take advantage of drones but guard against others’ use of drones? Sometimes it’s government—how do we develop institutions that protect, for example, in a nuclear security context?
Too often, both sides engage in hyperbole—either tech solutionism or tech pessimism, tech doomerism. Often the answer is somewhere in between. What I’m trying to do is make sense of an appropriate equilibrium—not persuasion so much as providing evidence that helps clarify the problem.

From environmental security to “bombs and bullets”
BW: If I’m not mistaken, you studied environmental studies and public policy as an undergrad. What led you into the military and eventually into the work you do now?

SK: I grew up in the D.C. area, so I was always marinating in public policy questions and national security. My dad worked for the Department of Energy in the nuclear space. So I was always interested in some version of security.
As an undergrad and master’s student, that took the form of environmental security. I did a lot of work on environmental engagement. But as I did ROTC training—and especially once I was in the military—I pivoted to what people might call “hard” national security, or what folks in the business refer to as the “bombs and bullets” side of security.
Part of that was the era: Kosovo, 9/11, and then Iraq. These were big military engagements. My work in the military was developing new intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance systems.
It seemed to me there were big questions within the military that didn’t always have the analysis. You had practitioners without the analytics, and analysts without the military experience. My background allowed me to bridge those audiences in ways most people can’t—either because they don’t have the credibility or they don’t have the experience.

Career arc and the value of the think tank ecosystem
BW: After the military, how did your career evolve? And with fellowships and affiliations—are those things you pursued, or did they come to you through the work?

SK: Some of both.
Think tanks let you stay engaged with real-world questions. It’s not that the “ivory tower” deserves all the derision it gets, but it’s certainly more insulated than the think tank community. Being involved in those conversations keeps ideas fresh.
If you look at the arc of my publications, I try to think hard about difficult national security problems. In 2009, before many people were paying attention to drones and U.S. counterterrorism, I started working on drones because I’d been in that space earlier. A friend from high school—he was a philosopher—came to me and said, “I’ve been watching what’s happening with drones. You were in the military; you’re a political scientist. Do you want to collaborate?” So I said yes.
That’s also true of my work more generally: it’s interdisciplinary. That drones work was with a philosopher. My work now on semiconductor supply chains is with mechanical engineers. My AI work is with computer scientists.
In a way, it comes full circle to being an undergrad working in labs. I took a lot of hard science classes—chemistry, physics, math—so I can be credible not just in national security, but also across disciplines.
The questions that are pressing today are inherently interdisciplinary. They need voices not just of engineers or computer scientists, but also philosophers, political scientists, and people who study national security. And especially in the last few years, these have become big societal questions—AI’s impact on employment, the battlefield, the classroom—so many of them require interdisciplinary answers.

A battlefield-proof guardrail (if one exists)
BW: Staying on AI: if you had to propose one realistic guardrail that could actually survive contact with modern conflict, what would it be?

SK: The important guardrail would be ensuring there is a human in the loop. But I’m not completely optimistic that it can survive contact with the battlefield.
Some of the work I’m doing right now is trying to figure out—data-driven—how individuals in battlefield settings interact with AI decision-support systems. People are developing these systems and putting them out in the field, but we don’t yet have great data about how people interact with them.
For example: do people respond to confidence thresholds in the same way? Are some more likely to override than others? We’re often assuming one size fits all in how these systems are used, but we don’t have good evidence for that.
So even saying “keep a human in the loop” is itself indeterminate, because we don’t really know—within a group of ten people—whether those ten will respond similarly to the same outputs.

Grants, rejections, and the “show up” principle
BW: You’ve certainly earned a lot of awards and grants for that kind of research. How do those processes start? How often do they work out? And how do you not get discouraged by the rejections?

SK: It’s definitely a numbers game. You have to apply to a lot of things, and some will work out. Like a lot of things in life, it’s about showing up over and over.

BW: When you win an award, do you already have a detailed plan for how you’ll implement it? Or does it adjust as you go?

SK: Part of the reason those processes are so long is that they require high-granularity thinking about what you’re actually going to do. Execution is often more straightforward than idea generation.

Regulation without delusion: the pragmatic middle path
BW: When governments try to govern emerging technology, they often default to either overconfidence in rules or fatalism that rules won’t matter. What’s your pragmatic middle path—how should institutions build adaptive governance without outsourcing responsibility to the technology?

SK: It’s a tricky question, and I grapple with it in the book. There’s no one-size-fits-all approach.
A lot depends on values. Europe is approaching this differently than the United States, which is approaching it differently than China. These regions have different values. Europe has long been more skeptical of new technologies, so the response tends to be more precautionary—even when technologies are still nascent.
We see that in the AI Act, which leans more aggressively into regulation than the U.S. The U.S. approach has been more: let evidence and data unfold so we can understand what the technology means before responding.
Policymakers face a conundrum. If you act too early, you may not understand the technology and could impede progress—for example, AI applications in medicine. But if you don’t act soon enough, you risk being caught flat-footed as new threats emerge.
In AI, we’ve seen a lot of existential language where the reality is more ambivalent. In the U.S., it’s also complicated because the U.S. has many of the tech firms. Aggressive regulation isn’t only about stifling technology and opportunity; it also has economic implications, because these firms are among the most thriving parts of the economy.
Certain states are taking regulation more seriously—California, New York—but what those steps can ignore is that capital and talent are mobile. They can move from state to state, country to country. In Europe, you don’t have the same thriving AI tech sector in part because people come here to do the work—because they can.

Why academia: the privilege of thinking (with students)
BW: Outside your research and writing, you’re also a professor at Cornell. Why did you decide to pursue academia alongside everything else, and what’s been most rewarding about teaching?

SK: I went into my PhD at a place known for cultivating practitioner types—Georgetown—so I thought I wanted to go back into the policy world.
But once I got into my studies, I realized what a privilege it is to wake up every day and think about questions that are important in the real world—or at least I hope they’re important. And also to educate the next generation on these issues. What better position than a university professor?
Someone from a think tank once said think tanks are great because they’re universities without students. And I thought: why would you want to be at a university without students? Students are one of the best parts of my job.
I teach law students, business school students, PhD students, undergrads—the whole range. Each group thinks about these topics differently, and my interactions with them enrich the way I think about the questions.

Two skills in 12 months: breadth and better questions
BW: As we wrap up, if a motivated undergrad wanted to contribute meaningfully to this field in the next 12 months, what are two concrete skills or habits—one analytical, one practical—that would make them more competent?

SK: I read this recently—and maybe it validates the approach I’ve taken—but the world today is a world suited for generalists.
Practically, I would recommend breadth. Some of the most interesting people can combine philosophy and computer science, or economics and political science. My recommendation is: don’t stovepipe yourself. Be well-versed across disciplines so you can look at problems not in silos, but as the real world presents them.
Analytically, it follows from that: learn how to ask the right questions. These aren’t falsifiable math questions. It’s about asking: how can societies, polities, and economies get the most out of new technologies without the negative externalities and risks? You try to get closer to the answer, even if there isn’t just one answer.

What she wishes she’d done earlier—and why reading still matters
BW: What’s a piece of career advice you wish you had taken earlier?

SK: Even though it contradicts what I said a little, I wish I had taken more math and more computer science earlier.
There’s a lot of debate about whether computer scientists will become obsolete because of AI, but I think that’s overblown. You need some understanding of coding to engage meaningfully with AI and to ask the right questions. I often feel like I’m outsourcing some of those parts to students.
On the other hand, that’s what teams are for. Not everyone can be good at everything. The best teams bring together people who are excellent at coding with people who are excellent at other things. But yes—I’d recommend that students load up on math and computer science while also engaging the bigger philosophical questions.

BW: One last one: if someone wants to follow a path like yours, is there any reading you’d recommend?

SK: I would just recommend more reading. I lament that people are engaging more and more online and on their phones. As someone who studies technology, I’m becoming more of a Luddite—wanting to put my phone aside and read something dense.
Read a classic. Sit down with a dense novel—Dostoyevsky—something that’s a slog, something that requires mental discipline. There’s a lot of awareness of physical discipline, but I think mental discipline is atrophying. Our ability to sustain focus is lower, and it takes a conscious decision to retrain that part of the mind.

BW: I’ve honestly never heard that response before, and it feels right. We live in a world built around short-form video—even platforms like Netflix and major news outlets are including clips on their platforms.

SK: The advice to read a dense book can sound out of step. But I do think that kind of mental discipline—something fewer people have—will set you apart.

BW: My computer is actually propped up on Walter Isaacson’s Steve Jobs biography right now--definitely different than Dostoyevsky but certainly dense!

SK: Biographies are great. I love reading biographies because there’s so much we can learn from people who’ve been successful.
And weaving insights together across different figures helps you map them onto your own personality. There isn’t one-size-fits-all. You read about one person, then another, and you can see, “I like this quality,” or “I hadn’t thought about that.” It becomes like a menu of skills and attributes. But how would you know that without reading deeply about people?
I read a biography of Martin Luther and found it fascinating—this figure from 500 years ago. He walked from Germany to Rome in the early 1500s. Putting yourself in a completely different time period—no trains, no modern travel—forces a mental exercise you don’t get online.
What struck me was that he disrupted the status quo. We think of technology as disrupting the status quo, but that’s what he did as an individual—enabled in part by technology like the printing press. Bringing those insights to the present is valuable. And I think if I’d read that book two years earlier, I would have gotten something different out of it. That’s why reading is so useful—it stimulates thoughts that short-form content just won’t.

Closing
BW: Professor Kreps, I can’t thank you enough for your time. It’s been an honor speaking with you today.
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SK: Thank you so much, Ben. 

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1/24/2026

Paul Poast on the Political Economy of Security, Teaching, and How Alliances Stay Credible

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Paul Poast approaches international security with a political economist’s instinct for constraints: what states want matters, but what they can sustain—and credibly commit to—matters more. Across his writing and scholarship, he returns to the hard problems that sit behind big slogans: what makes alliances believable in practice, how resources and domestic politics shape strategy, and why even “grand” choices usually get decided by ordinary tradeoffs.
In this conversation, we trace the formative moments that pulled him into international relations, the mentors and institutions that shaped his trajectory, and how he balances rigorous academic work with clear public-facing argument. We also dig into alliance credibility, how scarcity often determines outcomes more than rhetoric, and what students can do now to become genuinely useful in serious security research—closing with one book Poast recommends again and again.

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-Paul Poast is an Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago (and Deputy Dean for Doctoral Education), and he writes as a foreign affairs columnist for World Politics Review.
The through-line: how economics and security collide
Ben Wolf: For readers who may not be familiar with your career, what’s been the through-line—and what’s the question you’ve consistently been trying to answer throughout your work?

Paul Poast: Great question. What’s been driving me throughout my career? One way to answer that is to share how I got interested in studying this subject matter.
In many ways, it goes back to when I was very young—elementary school, junior high, somewhere in there. I can’t remember exactly where I was on my school path, but I remember one summer: my older brother and I were getting a hard time in our small town in southwest Ohio. People were joking that our dad was “rolling in the money now,” making all sorts of money.
And we were like—why would they say that? My dad owned a gas station. The reason people were making that comment was because the price of gasoline kept going up and up and up that summer. Of course, my dad was not rolling in money—he had to pay more to get the gasoline he was pumping out. But the point is: people saw the prices and made assumptions.
That was the summer of 1990. Iraq was mobilizing against Kuwait and then, on August 2, launched its invasion. That set the path for the first Persian Gulf War.
So for me, as a very young person, it was fascinating to see a security event on the other side of the world have a direct impact on small-town Ohio—through gasoline prices. I became very interested in that process: how interconnected we are, and specifically the economic angle to security affairs.
That’s been a key theme in my work. As an undergrad, I studied political science and economics. Then I got a master’s degree focused on international political economy. A lot of my research is in what I call the political economy of security—the intersection of economics and security. You can draw that through-line back to that formative experience.

Mentors, institutions, and the value of the senior thesis
BW: You’ve trained in a variety of academic environments. What parts of your development came from people—mentors, peers—what came from institutions, and what was your own self-discipline and ambition?

PP: It’s all of those things mixed together—and it’s hard to disentangle people from institutions, because the people are there because of the institutions.
As an undergraduate, I had great professors and got my first real experience doing research. I went to Miami University in Oxford, Ohio, and I participated in the honors economics program my senior year. I wrote a senior thesis—on the influence of economic sanctions—again, right at the intersection of economics and security. That was my first real foray into research, and it set me up to pursue a master’s degree at the LSE.
At the LSE, it was an intensive immersion into thinking deeply about a topic. That’s what set me on the path of realizing I wanted to earn a PhD and become a scholar.
Then once I entered the PhD program at the University of Michigan, I view myself as a product of that program as much as I’m a product of my dissertation committee. I had a great committee, but there were many people not on my committee who supported my intellectual development.
So the common theme is: yes, there were absolutely people I can point to—but those people were within an academic setting, supported by the structure of it.
I tell undergrads all the time: if you can write a senior thesis, it’s a great capstone experience. It pulls together what you’ve learned and gives you the chance to do deep thinking about a topic. That’s an institutional feature—but it’s positive because of the people guiding you. Same with my PhD program: I had a very positive experience, and a big part of that was the faculty support.

Any regrets? 
BW: Looking back now, are there experiences or choices you wish you would have changed or done differently?

PP: I don’t think there’s anything I would have done differently as an academic.
Sure—you can always think: I could have worked on this research project or that one, focused on this instead of that. There are alternative paths. I don’t know if I would have been better off or worse off.
Because the reality is: being a tenured professor at the University of Chicago is my dream job. If you asked me when I started where I’d want to be, it would be doing exactly what I’m doing right now. Given that, it’s hard to say I should have gone another path.

Study abroad and “enhanced” international experience
BW: What about, for example, the experience of studying abroad in undergrad? Especially in a field like international relations—how much value do you place on it?

PP: Study abroad is a great experience. It’s interesting you mention it—part of the reason I went to the London School of Economics was because I didn’t do a study abroad. It was like: here’s my chance to not just study abroad, but get a degree from a university outside the United States.
And it was the LSE—technically the London School of Economics and Political Science—so as a political science and economics double major, it felt like bringing those two things together.
For me, I didn’t do study abroad as an undergrad because I was a collegiate athlete. That’s an all-year commitment, including summers, so you don’t really have the opportunity.
Miami University also has a campus in Luxembourg and makes a big deal about it—so it was definitely an opportunity for students. It just wasn’t one I could take advantage of. But I was fortunate to have what I’d call an even enhanced experience by pursuing my master’s degree at the LSE.
Since then, I’ve advised students: study abroad is great, but if you’re thinking about a master’s, consider applying to programs outside the U.S. There are great programs in the U.K., and many elsewhere.

“Professor Poast” vs. “Pundit Paul”
BW: You move between academic research and public-facing writing. How do you decide when a question deserves a journal article versus a piece for a broader audience? And what do you refuse to simplify even when editors want you to?

PP: I joke that there’s Professor Poast and there’s “Pundit Paul.” Sometimes the two get into arguments, and they don’t always agree.
Your question gets at: when do I put on the professor hat, and when do I put on the pundit hat?
There are times they’re fully aligned—where I’m making a public argument that draws directly on scholarship. If I’m talking about commitment problems, or international organizations, I can explain why an administration might find certain organizations unattractive and choose to exit them. Or NATO—Article 5 and what it means—those are squarely in my research, and I can bring them into a public explanation.
But there are other times where “Pundit Paul” and “Professor Poast” don’t correspond. A good example: as a professor, I wouldn’t say “Ukraine must be part of NATO.” That’s a public-policy statement. I may have an opinion, and I wrote a column arguing it’s time for Ukraine to join NATO.
That’s “Pundit Paul.” “Professor Poast” would come in and tell you: that’s not going to happen. Then I’d step back and say: what does it take to join NATO? What are member states’ interests? What are the commitment problems? What’s the history? It’s not happening—at least not in the way people imagine.
So sometimes “Pundit Paul” is making the argument I’d like to see, while “Professor Poast” is explaining what’s likely given the incentives and constraints.

How alliances stay credible: action beats paper
BW: Without turning this into punditry, what does your framework imply are the most important stress tests for an alliance system—signals it’s adapting well versus drifting into ritual commitments?

PP: This has been on a lot of people’s minds—concerns about NATO cohesion, concerns that the U.S. might not want to be part of NATO, frictions created by the war in Ukraine, Hungary, Turkey, and so forth.
The first thing I tell people is: NATO is a data point, not a comparison point. NATO is extremely unusual in the history of alliances. Most alliances don’t last nearly as long. Most aren’t nearly as institutionalized—most alliances don’t have a building in Brussels as headquarters. Most don’t have a mutual-defense provision like Article 5.
And even then, the strength of Article 5 is weaker than people assume. Most alliances are written on paper—commitments to protect or work together—so the question becomes: what ensures follow-through?
The key thing is: it’s not really about what’s on paper. A lot of times, treaties are intentionally written with flexibility in interpretation.
That’s why a comment President Trump made in a New York Times interview the other day stuck with me. When asked whether he would adhere to international law, he replied: “Well, it depends on your definition of international law.” And honestly, that’s exactly right in the sense that so much of what we call “international law” is written with enough ambiguity to permit wide discretion.
What makes alliances credible is action beyond the treaty—often enabled by the treaty, but not contained in it. Forward-deployed troops matter. The best way to show I’ll protect you is to have forces ready to protect you. There’s no better way to show the U.S. cares than an aircraft carrier showing up. Troops on the ground matter.
That’s why debates about security guarantees for Ukraine often turn to: should there be NATO troops on the ground? From Ukraine’s standpoint, without troops, it can feel like a promise Russia won’t believe. With troops, it’s a more credible commitment—what we’d call costly signals of commitment.
So for me: an alliance is credible because of actions, not just the text of a treaty.

BW: I think David Sanger may have asked that “international law” question in the New York Times interview—he’s someone I’ve had on the Pathway Blog recently—so it was cool to see him pressing on such an interesting and relevant topic.

PP: Oh yeah. That interview is a treasure trove. I could write my next six columns just on different aspects of it.

When resources are real constraints—and when they’re rhetorical
BW: Last policy-focused question before we move to advice for students. You work on the political economy of security. Where do resource constraints—budgets, industrial capacity, war financing—change strategic outcomes, and where are they mostly rhetorical? Any historical examples?

PP: I like how you phrase that: real constraints versus rhetorical constraints. A historical example I’ve been researching recently is U.S. entry into World War II.
The resource constraint was huge. At the end of the day, FDR and Churchill were aligned that Germany had to be stopped. But they were also like: we can’t get into a war with Japan because we don’t have the naval capacity. We can’t fight two wars at once. In 1941, that was a real constraint. By 1943–44, U.S. production had shifted and the U.S. could prosecute a two-front war. But in ’41, buying time with Japan mattered.
That’s part of why I don’t buy the argument that Pearl Harbor was a “back door” plan to enter the war. If you look at it, they were trying to stall war with Japan because it would suck up resources needed for the Atlantic.
More recently: the war in Ukraine. When the war in Ukraine and the war in Gaza were both at peak intensity, the U.S. was trying to support both Ukraine and Israel. At one point there were cases of diverting munitions that would have gone to Ukraine to Israel because stockpiles weren’t sufficient to supply both at the same rate. That’s a real constraint—and it creates real tradeoffs, and controversy over who needs what more.
But then you have moments where the constraint is less clear. For example, when the Trump administration temporarily paused shipments of arms to Ukraine, the justification involved concern about low stockpiles for U.S. defense. My view is: there was some truth to it, but by and large that was more rhetorical—a justification used to support a policy pause. And as we know, that decision was reversed within about a week.

Teaching and research: “They feed into each other”
BW: How has teaching shaped your research and thinking? And more broadly, what do you try to teach students that you wish someone had taught you earlier?

PP: I view teaching and research as going hand in hand. Sometimes that’s direct: I run a program here at the University of Chicago that creates opportunities for undergraduates to get involved in faculty research—learning methods and participating in research.
Faculty should also bring research into the classroom, and use classroom discussions to shape research. If you’re having good discussions, interesting questions come up. And frankly, one of the key things about research is not just the finding, but how the finding is framed. Is someone going to read your paper? They will if they think it’s a compelling thing to study.
One of the best ways to test whether something is compelling is to run the idea by undergrads. Explaining ideas also helps you learn how to frame them for people who want to be informed but aren’t yet steeped in the field.
Teaching also trains you for public speaking. A lot of being a successful academic is being able to give a research talk. Teaching helps you get used to communicating clearly.
A great example is John Mearsheimer, my senior colleague. He’s a beloved teacher, he’s a renowned scholar, and he does a lot of public engagement. He’s the same in all environments—classroom, public speaking, research presentations. They feed into each other.
For what I try to teach students that I wish someone had taught you earlier? It depends on the class. But for undergrads, one of my key courses is Intro to International Relations. I approach it from an intellectual history standpoint.
There’s one way to teach intro IR where you say: here are today’s big questions. That’s great. What I try to do is help students understand: why is there even an academic discipline called international relations?
The modern discipline is a product of World War I. That’s when funding emerges—philanthropists donating to found places like the Council on Foreign Relations in New York, Chatham House in London, the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown (1919), the Department of International Relations at Aberystwyth (1919), the Chicago Council on Foreign Relations (1921).
You see this cluster in 1919 through the early 1920s because people looked at World War I and said: what just happened, and how do we prevent it from happening again? Could the League of Nations solve it?
They didn’t solve it—we got World War II. Nuclear weapons then heighten the stakes. So the discipline grows out of the problem of war.
Students respond to that because they realize immediately: we haven’t answered these questions. The first question was: why do we have war? And we still haven’t fully figured it out—so we still need the discipline.

Advice for students: read broadly, avoid monocultures
BW: As we close: if a student wants to do serious security research but doesn’t know where to start, what should their first-year habits be? What should they write, read, practice, who should they speak to—and what should they avoid?

PP: I’m around students like that a lot. Each summer I teach a program where high school students come to the University of Chicago for a three-week class in international politics. And of course I teach undergrads.
There are great resources students should read: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, World Politics Review—where I write a weekly column—and War on the Rocks. Those are terrific for international relations and security issues.
As for what to avoid: I’m not big on saying “avoid this.” Maybe that’s very Chicago of me. The essence is: let’s stop and think about that—rather than shutting something down.
But I do recommend not being reliant on one source. Don’t be the person who only reads CNN or only watches Fox. That’s not going to get you anywhere. Get a variety of sources and angles. Avoid becoming someone who only listens to one person to formulate your views.

A book recommendation: The Prize
BW: Final question: what book has influenced you the most—or what should a student read if they want a career path similar to yours?

PP: I’m not going to recommend my own—even though I’m very happy with my books, including my newest book, Wheat at War, which I co-authored with Rosella Cappella Zielinski, and you can see the political economy angle in it.
But one book that influenced my thinking—and it makes sense given my origin story—is The Prize by Daniel Yergin. The prize is oil. It’s the history of oil influencing the global economy and the global security environment from the late 19th century through the 20th century.
That book gave me the macro view: a security event affects oil markets, which affects small-town Ohio. The Prize helped me understand those processes and made me want to study them more. It’s a book I recommend to students all the time.

BW: Professor Poast, it’s been a real honor. 

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1/21/2026

Mayor Quinton Lucas on Campaigns, the Rapid-Response Era, and Why Local Government Still Matters Most

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Two years after our first conversation, Mayor Quinton Lucas told me his routine hasn’t changed much: he still tries to get his best thinking done early, before the day crowds it out. What’s changed is the craft—his insistence on writing with clearer logic and tighter brevity, and his belief that better communication isn’t cosmetic in politics; it’s the difference between leading and reacting. That focus becomes the thread that ties together a career that moved from a big-law glide path to city hall, without ever losing its underlying question: how do you translate problems into decisions people can actually live with?
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From there, we talk about what’s actually different now in political life. He argues that “no comment” has collapsed, that nearly every public official is forced into video and rapid response, and that the speed of the cycle quietly rewires what citizens expect from government. Lucas is unusually frank about the tension between being accessible and staying focused—why he still stands by giving out his phone number, what he learned about people’s expectations once he did, and why the only sustainable answer is a staff system that can sort signal from noise without turning the mayor into a 24/7 call center.
We then move to Kansas City’s role in the 2026 FIFA World Cup and what preparedness looks like when it’s more than event-day theatrics: transit, public safety, and planning that can hold up under crowds and scrutiny. Lucas also traces the experience that pushed him off a big-firm track and toward public service—a death-penalty appeal that made systemic failure feel personal and immediate, not theoretical. We close with his most direct advice for students: treat politics as results-oriented work, don’t confuse effort with impact, outwork the complacent, and learn to carry ambition without letting it become performance.


​-Quinton Lucas is the Mayor of Kansas City, Missouri.
Protecting the morning and sharpening the message
Ben Wolf: When we spoke two years ago, you described that the best intellectual work you do happens early—before the day takes over. What have you changed about your personal operating system since then? What do you protect? What do you delegate—and what still surprises you about the job?

Mayor Quinton Lucas: I’ve changed almost nothing in terms of the early start. But I do think one thing that’s often forgotten is that you want to keep advancing your writing style as the years go by. I’ve tried to write with better clarity, and with more brevity, in how I convey points and messages. The strongest intellectual pursuit I’ve focused on is: how am I becoming a stronger communicator, particularly in the written word?
In terms of the rest of your question—changes, things I’ve adapted to—not really. What has changed drastically is political communications. That’s an area we continue to work on.

Politics after “no comment”: observation, video, rapid response
BW: How are you trying to improve your political communications?

QL: One way is through observation—looking at forms of success. I’ve tried to be more strategic with that.
When I first got into politics, about ten and a half years ago, you had a template. The template could be: urban Black politicians reach out to this demographic, you have this market, and you deal with it.
What’s been transformative over the last decade is that almost everyone needs to be in the video-messaging business. Almost everyone needs to be in the rapid-response business—something I think this mayor’s office still needs to get stronger at. And I recognize that’s part of my own communication style now.
And here’s another shift—this is a critique some people might have of Democratic Senate leadership and others: you actually have to respond in more situations than you used to. “No comment” was much more viable in a past generation— even five to ten years ago.
When you look at President Trump—my goodness—who takes a kind of word-vomit approach to almost any engagement, what you can’t do is say, “We’ll respond on Wednesday at the U.S. Senate.”

Accessibility vs. focus: the phone number experiment
BW: On that note of rapid response: you once gave out your phone number to the city, saying you wanted to be the most accessible mayor in the country. What have you learned about the trade-off between accessibility and focus? And how do you separate real signal from political noise?

QL: What I’ve learned most is: you still won’t make everybody happy.
You would hope that giving the phone number is, in some ways—and I really did give it, and I do respond to it—enough of a sign to people that you’re accessible. But what people will say is, “Well, I texted you and you didn’t respond fast enough,” or whatever.
It’s understanding human beings. You can respond with, “It’s a really busy day,” and they’re like, “Screw you, man. No, I really have an issue right now.”
What I would suggest to someone isn’t necessarily that they shouldn’t do the same thing. It’s that you have to make sure you still have an office apparatus built out—people who know how to respond quickly and effectively.

BW: Do you stand by that decision? Any regret at all?

QL: I stand by it. I don’t regret it. There are absolutely bonkers people who have reached out to me, but it’s amazing—those people usually find you anyway.

World Cup 2026: preparedness, planning, and pressure
BW: Transitioning to something I imagine is happier to talk about: we have the FIFA World Cup coming here this summer. How are you handling that pressure, especially with a figure like Lionel Messi coming to the city? How is that pressure affecting you?

QL: I feel almost no pressure. Maybe I should, but I think our preparation has been exceptional.
Obviously there are always issues—public safety, transportation challenges, and others—that can trip you up. But Kansas City will be very ready at the venue, Arrowhead Stadium. The expansion of the streetcar line helps—good public transit helps make it work.
And I’ve worked pretty well across the aisle trying to make sure we get things done. The head of the FIFA White House Task Force is Andrew Giuliani, the son of the former mayor of New York City. Our politics are very different. That said, our commitment to making sure the World Cup is pulled off well is not.
I’ll also say: I’ve had a blessing as mayor in Kansas City, Missouri—the Chiefs have played in, I think, five Super Bowls, which is kind of crazy. So I’ve seen how different cities prepare.
New Orleans is interesting, because New Orleans is just kind of like, “We’re having a Super Bowl y'all,” and they bring in more law enforcement, and otherwise they’re like, “We throw big parties like this.” Others have to see more change.
The cities that are truly prepared are the ones that properly integrate major events into good city planning.

Cornell Law and the unexpected inflection point
BW: You went to Cornell Law. When you went to law school, did you already know you wanted to enter politics?

QL: No, I did not.

BW: What was the inflection point where you decided, “Yes—I want to run for office”?

QL: It relates to a death penalty matter I worked on in Georgia.
My first year of law school was normal—everybody takes the same courses. It went fine. I did fairly well, actually. So I was on the glide path to big-firm practice. Summer one I was at a big firm in Kansas City; summer two I was at a big firm in Boston and Washington.
But halfway through my second year, a professor asked if I’d be interested in working on a death penalty case. Missouri used to execute a lot more people, so I actually wasn’t interested. It’s odd to think, but in the ’90s and early 2000s, executions happened with some regularity in certain places. I said no.
She pushed me to change my mind. I did.
It was a Black defendant. Four-day trial—wild. One day sentencing phase. In 1991, he was sentenced to death by electric chair. We were working on an appeal, and I saw a fundamental failure in society that led to so many tragedies downstream—including the murder of his victims connected to a drug transaction, including his own execution, and lots of other steps.
I met his daughter, who was one year old when he was sentenced. And you saw a lot of the same challenges he faced as a child in the ’60s in Georgia: an incredibly segregated community, incredible poverty.
A lot of things had been unfixed. And I realized, in my view, that government—particularly starting at the local level—is a truly transformative thing for America.

BW: Have you spoken with Congressman Suhas Subramanyam out of Virginia at all?

QL: I have not.

BW: I interviewed him last month, and he had a similar story—working on a death penalty case at Northwestern Law, and that pushed him toward office. I wonder if he shared the same motivations.

From fear to the mechanics: what people misunderstand about campaigns
BW: For me, I’ve long been fascinated by politics. But one reason I’m drawn to something like the State Department, rather than running for office, is fear—the risk, investing yourself, and it not paying off.
How did you prepare to run a campaign? And what do people most misunderstand about the process?

QL: A few things.
What’s misunderstood about running for office is how hard it is—and I mean it this way: it’s rigorous, but a lot of people treat that as a barrier to entry.
Before I ran, I thought there was a central place where you get money, where you get support—where all those things happen. That’s not the case. It’s your personality, your connections, your diligence that makes an incredible amount of difference in any American community.
The example everyone talks about right now is Zohran Mamdani in New York—where a year and a half ago, no one in broader America knew who he was, and probably most New Yorkers had no idea who he was.
The traditional view is: even if maybe Andrew Cuomo with baggage doesn’t get elected, then the former comptroller, Scott Stringer, or someone else ascends—maybe Brad Lander, a nice Jewish boy from Missouri, from St. Louis, in a citywide position, looking to ascend to mayor. But Zohran does it differently. And that speaks to how politics are done today.
Money still matters—don’t get me wrong. But messaging matters a ton. Passion matters a lot.
My bio says I’m the youngest mayor elected in Kansas City since 1855. I was elected at 34.
But the point is: the barriers to entering a campaign aren’t that high. It’s amazing what one can do in the modern era with a blog, social media, real engagement.
And frankly, where we blow most of our political money is still television. TV is, in some ways, the biggest waste of political money. In races that don’t need it, you realize you can actually win without TV ads.
In Kansas City’s next mayoral election in two years, you could win without TV ads—which would seem transformative to someone not just thirty years ago, but even four years ago, when that was all they did because reaching people was harder. You had more town halls. That has shifted a lot.

Advice to students: solve the problem, outwork everyone, own your gifts
BW: As we close, I want to turn directly to students. As mayor, you’ve met many young people—students, staffers, people entering public life. What are the most important skills and habits to build for a long, successful career in politics?

QL: I’ll be blunt: you’ve got to figure out how to solve the goddamn problem. You have to solve the problem.
Sometimes that means—if we’re talking politics—you’ve got to win. You win or you don’t. There aren’t medals for “Wow, you came really damn close.” “It was tight in all these states.” “Great strategy.” Sometimes that’s my frustration in government, actually, because people are like, “But I worked so hard.” That does not matter.
Whether it’s government, politics, law—my profession—or anything else: a person hires you to get the deal done, to win the case. Same thing in political discourse.
Win or lose with honor—don’t get me wrong—but that need to win speaks to diligence and ambition.
The thing that dooms young people in politics—staffers and candidates—is thinking somebody’s going to do all the stuff for you. Delusions of grandeur.
I love smart people. That’s why politics is interesting: you can be in a room with the best-educated minds, and I’m like—you guys don’t know what’s going on in lots of America.
You can tell me the greatest treatise of how the American voter thinks, but I’m campaigning in Kalamazoo, Michigan, and there’s a loud on-the-ground concern about pure connectivity.
On diligence: when I ran, my predecessor endorsed another candidate. She had about three times as much money as I did, at least at the primary level. And I was like: no one will outwork me.
I was 34—really 33 most of the time. I had a 28-year-old running my campaign. It was just us. So what could we do? We worked our asses off every day. We were everywhere. We adapted. We listened. We engaged with lots of people. That was diligence.
And yes—you have to be ambitious. Don’t sign up for public life just because you think it sounds cool. I mean this with love, but if your vibe is to hang out, go sit at a law firm and hang out.
If you want to be a key decision-maker—mayor, State Department, Congress—then you need to find ways to share that ambition. Be a little more prideful than you might otherwise think--not obnoxious, not arrogant. Everybody hates an arrogant person who thinks they’re the greatest.
But I believe—this is how you sound humble, by the way, if you ever run for office—I believe God blessed me with a gift of communication. And I think that allows me to be a good messenger in a party that sometimes has trouble finding its way.
It’s up to me, based on the gifts I was blessed with—by whomever, mom, schooling—to use that gift for the best interest of the American people. I’d encourage you all to find that passion. It makes the job easier.

What to read: Du Bois and the discipline of biography
BW: Finally—if you could recommend a single book, either for someone interested in your career path or a book that most influenced you, what would it be and why?

QL: Oh my gosh—something I should think of before.
I’m a big biographies person. I learn a great deal from people—their pitfalls, their passions. I’d go back into Black history. Black leaders of the early 20th century were some of the most dynamic folks in changing the world in ways you wouldn’t have expected.
So rather than one book, I’d read the writings of W.E.B. Du Bois. In his early work with the NAACP, and looking at the role of Black Americans in American society, I think he saw a pathway that has continued to be—frankly—the path that’s built progress over the last 100 years.
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BW: Mr. Mayor, it’s been a real pleasure speaking with you. I appreciate you taking the time.

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1/18/2026

Yuval Levin on Institutions, Influence, and the Difference Between Expression and Action

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Yuval Levin’s professional life isn’t a straight-line ascent so much as a sustained commitment to one question: how enduring ideas become workable public action—and what breaks when our institutions stop doing their formative work. In this conversation, Levin looks back on a path that only coheres in retrospect, moving from Capitol Hill (including the final years of Newt Gingrich’s speakership), to the University of Chicago’s Committee on Social Thought, to Leon Kass’s presidential bioethics commission, and then into the Bush White House and the think tank/editorial world. Across those shifts, his “home base” stays the same: the border between theory and practice.
From there, we dig into the craft and the diagnosis. Levin explains how he stress-tests arguments so they don’t devolve into stylish, self-satisfied commentary—and why the best writing brings “permanent” questions to whatever everyone is staring at right now. That framework sets up his broader institutional critique: authority is increasingly used as a stage for personal branding, not a role that shapes people toward service, and the consequences show up in everything from performative politics to Congress’s diminishing appetite for the hard work of governing.
We close with Levin’s most concrete counsel for students: treat expression as cheap and action as hard, think in decades rather than news cycles, and read widely enough that you can tolerate—and learn from—views you didn’t arrive with. 

-Yuval Levin is the founding editor of National Affairs and the director of Social, Cultural, and Constitutional Studies at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), where he holds the Beth and Ravenel Curry Chair in Public Policy.
Finding the through line: theory meets practice
Benjamin Wolf: For readers who may not know your path, what’s been the through line of your career—and what problem have you most consistently tried to work on, even as venues have changed?
​

Yuval Levin: It’s an interesting question because it’s one that I can only really answer in retrospect. I definitely did not have a path laid out when I was an undergraduate or early in my career.
I knew I was interested in politics, broadly speaking, and I went to college in Washington, D.C. I was an undergraduate at American University—studied political science—but more than that, being in D.C. meant I got a chance to work on Capitol Hill as a college student, and after.
And in a sense, I came gradually to see that what really interested me was not everyday electoral politics so much as the intersection of theory and practice, as I would describe it now: the place where political ideas really meet public policy.
I was very interested in policy—federal budget issues, health care. That’s what I ended up working on as a congressional staffer, and I became more and more involved in the range of domestic policy issues. But I was also more and more interested in political theory, and it wasn’t obvious to me that there was a career path that could explore that intersection.
I was a congressional staffer. I worked for a member, then for the Budget Committee, and then for the Speaker—at the end of the 1990s. So I worked for Newt Gingrich in the last two years of his speakership. And when he left Congress in 1998–99, I decided it was time to try graduate school, and I went to the University of Chicago to get a PhD, basically in political theory. I did it in a program at Chicago called the Committee on Social Thought—which is a very University of Chicago thing—but it was essentially a PhD in political theory.
If you had asked me during that time, I would have said I was on a path to be an academic, to be a professor somewhere. But George W. Bush got elected president in 2000, and toward the end of 2001 he named one of my professors at Chicago to run a presidential advisory commission on bioethics—which was a big issue in the early 2000s.
That professor—because I had worked in Washington and was his student—his name was Leon Kass. He asked me to come and work for him on the staff of that commission. So while I was finishing my PhD, I came back to Washington and worked on a presidential commission as the staff director.
And that actually—though I could never have designed it that way—was a way to work at the intersection of theory and practice. It was both academic and political. Through that work, I got to know people in the Bush administration. I ended up working in the Bush White House as a domestic policy staffer for most of Bush’s second term.
And then I went into the think tank world, where again I’ve had a peculiar opportunity to work at the intersection of theory and practice—thinking about how political ideas move public policy, and being involved in some of the big policy debates of the time, as those have changed. I worked a lot on health care issues in the Obama years, and then have really worked, above all, on the questions of the health and integrity of American institutions since that time—with a set of books about how to think institutionally, how to think about the American constitutional system.
All of that has really been, for me, a way of hanging out at that intersection: How does theory relate to practice? How does public policy relate to political ideas?
If somebody asked me how you get a job in that space, I have no idea. I think it’s really a matter of being open to walking through doors that weren’t the ones you were looking for—and that’s more or less my career path.

Pressure-testing ideas: avoiding the “clever essay” trap
BW: You’ve been both an editor and a policy thinker. What’s your process for pressure-testing an argument so it doesn’t become just a clever essay—especially when your audience may already agree with you?

YL: The challenge is to look at what everybody’s looking at and see something that others haven’t seen. It’s very easy to just write what everybody’s writing at any given moment. I’m sure I do fall into that, and there’s no way entirely to avoid it.
But the challenge is always to try to bring some framework—some set of ideas—to a prominent question that isn’t the frame everybody else brings to it. To me, that gets back to the opportunity presented by working at the intersection of theory and practice.
I try to approach the questions of the day from the point of view of some deeper principles or philosophical debates that are always relevant. That’s a way to challenge contemporary assumptions and conventional wisdom. I’m sure I don’t always do that, but that’s the goal: take what everybody’s looking at right now, and subject it to the test of durable ideas—permanent ideas. That’s one way to bring value to public debate.

One failure behind multiple crises: institutions as platforms for self
BW: Going back to what you said about institutions: if you had to name one institutional failure that explains multiple downstream crises—distrust, polarization—what would it be, and why that one?

YL: I think there’s one kind of institutional failure behind a lot of the challenges we face now. It’s an argument I put forward in a book in 2020 called A Time to Build.
In a lot of our institutions, people with authority used their institutional position not as a way of being formed into some particular kind of work, but as a platform for their own self-expression—their own brand, their own prominence.
Having a meaningful place in an institution generally means you have to be formed in some particular way. You have a role to play, and you have to ask yourself: What’s my role here? If I’m a scholar or a student, if I’m a CEO, if I’m a parent—given that role, what should I be doing? That’s what you ask when an institution has formed you.
But a lot of times now—whether it’s in politics, in Congress, or the presidency, or the courts; whether it’s in the professions, in journalism, or in law; whether it’s in American religion or culture—you find people who clearly do have a role not being formed by that role, but using it to elevate themselves and build a bigger following.
A lot of members of Congress now, rather than thinking, “As a legislator, how should I approach this problem?” think: being a legislator means I have a big audience, so let me speak to that big audience. I think our last several presidents have operated performatively in that sense. You find it increasingly in the corporate world, in journalism, in science—people using their position to build a following rather than being formed by the institution they’re part of.
That’s a general pattern—it doesn’t describe everything—but I think it has a lot to do with the particular problems you find in a lot of institutions in American life. And I focused particularly on the ways this shows itself in American political life. I do think that in Congress in particular, this deformation creates a situation where Congress isn’t eager to do its work—and the absence of Congress is behind a lot of our constitutional problems in this moment.

Institutions and authenticity: why “outsider forever” can’t build anything
BW: Many young people hear “institutions” and automatically think “bureaucracy,” or associate it with a negative stigma. What’s the best argument that institutions are not the enemy of authenticity or freedom, but one of the conditions for them?

YL: Institution is a boring word. It’s not exciting. It doesn’t seem like something you’d want to be part of. And American culture encourages us to think in terms of independence and authenticity, and so not to be constrained by institutions.
The trouble is: you just can’t do anything in the world without institutions. What is an institution? It’s really a form of common action. It’s built around a goal. It brings people together around that goal and gives each of them a role in relation to the goal and to each other.
If the goal is to educate children, some people are teachers, some are principals, some are parents, some are students. What they do together is the work of an institution.
It’s not really possible to do anything together in the world without that institutional form. If you always want to be the maverick outsider, there’s a satisfaction in that, but you can’t really do anything. You can’t be influential. You can’t actually change the world if all you are is an individual critic.
There’s value in individual critics, but we can’t all play that role, because then no one’s doing anything.
So I would say to younger people: tell me what you care about in the world, and I’ll show you why you can only do anything about it by being part of a functional institution. The maverick critic can only get you so far. If you actually want to change things for the better, you need to think about how to build institutions, how to play a part in them, and how to see what they do.
They’re more exciting than they seem, because they’re the only way we can have real agency in the world.

“Expression isn’t action”: writing that’s worth publishing even if it won’t go viral
BW: Political and academic writing is increasingly incentivized to be outrageous—performance gets views. When you’re deciding what to publish at National Affairs, how do you make sure what you’re publishing is worth publishing even if it won’t go viral? And how do you dissuade yourself from chasing the more outrageous angle?

YL: It’s vital to ask yourself: is my goal a big following, or is my goal some set of action in the world? Those are not the same.
It’s important to remind ourselves of the difference between expression and action. It’s very easy now, being intensely engaged with the world through social media, to think that liking something—or even just saying something—is the same as doing something. Generally speaking, when you’ve expressed yourself on social media, you’ve done essentially nothing. The question is: how do I do more than nothing?
In our political life, the answer is: build a coalition. Persuade people. A lot of political expression now is not persuasive. It’s directed to people who already agree, and its purpose is to energize them. But the problem we face is that we don’t have broad coalitions for action. Even political parties now generally form narrow majorities when they’re majorities at all, and they’ve lost the knack for building broad coalitions.
So the question I ask myself when I consider something for publishing at National Affairs is: does this make a case for action that has some chance of being broadly persuasive?
I’m in an advantageous place because we don’t depend on a large audience. We try to have an influential audience, but the magazine is a nonprofit supported by people who value its capacity to inform our political life. What we do doesn’t have a mass audience—there’s no chance it would. If you publish a 6,000-word piece on how to fix Medicaid, you’re not going to go viral. The question is: might you reach the people in a position to actually do something about the problem?
One other thing as an editor: our goal is at least as focused on the writers as the audience. We’re trying to build a community of people who think together about public problems. I’m as interested in drawing the right writers together as in reaching the right readers.
We offer our writers an influential readership. In a sense, I think about our audience as a way of getting the best writers, as much as the other way around—because part of what you need to advance political change in a free society is an intellectual community of people thinking through how to address public problems.
So I’m definitely not in the business of going viral. If I were, what I’m doing would be a great failure. But that’s not everybody’s role, and it’s certainly not mine.

Diagnosing performative institutions: “going out of their lanes”
BW: You’ve warned against performative institutions—places that reward status signaling more than service. What’s a diagnostic sign that tells you an institution has drifted from formation into performance?

YL: It’s especially clear when you see institutions plainly going out of their lanes.
When a university feels the need to have an institutional opinion about a war in the Middle East, I think: I’m not sure that’s what we look to you for. Or when a company feels the need to express itself about an election or a big political issue—you can understand why they feel that, but they’re making a mistake, and they’re undermining their capacity to do their actual work.
This happens a lot. It happens with professionals who feel like the authority they have in one arena gives them the authority to speak in every arena. If you work in public health, you feel expected to have a view about civil rights. Well—you’re not. Help us address the problems in your own domain, rather than thinking that being prominent there means you have to express an opinion about everything all the time.
So you see it constantly: why is it necessary for the pastor of this congregation to have a view about that political issue? Why is it necessary for this CEO to tell me what his company thinks about abortion? That question points to trouble on the institutional front.

Career advice: the door you didn’t expect, and the time horizon everyone forgets
BW: As we begin to close: what’s a piece of career advice you wish you had taken earlier? And  what’s one question you wish more interviewers asked because it gets closer to the real trade-offs of this work?

YL: I think the hardest thing to grasp as a student—something I only see in retrospect—is that no one’s career follows a path. Successful people generally are doing something they would not have expected to be doing when they were younger.
The hardest thing is to be willing to walk through the door that isn’t the one you expected, but that’s presented itself and offers an interesting opportunity.
A lot of times the feeling is: there’s risk here; I should play it safe, follow the path, look for the next promotion on the track I’m on. That’s not crazy, but it assumes career paths are laid out trajectories—and that’s almost never true in any profession.
So be willing to try things when you’re young. The risks are higher when you’re older—you have more to lose. You’ve got a family, you’re established somewhere. You can’t just try something for a year and if it fails try something else. When you’re 22, you really can. That’s the time to do it. You’ll regret not trying it when you have less freedom later on.
In terms of a question people don’t ask—what’s hard to grasp about the business I’m in is that change takes time. Politics demands you operate in a short-term way—you think about the issue of the moment—but significant change, whether analyzing it or driving it, requires a long-term view.
You have to ask: what needs to be true in ten years for this to work out?
It’s always worth asking people: what do you see yourself advancing in the long term—not just what are you trying to do next week or next month?

Becoming useful: read widely, seek history, tolerate discomfort
BW: If a motivated undergrad wants to become meaningfully useful in this world, what skills or habits should they focus on developing?

YL: You have to be open to a variety of views—and that means you’ve got to read a lot. Expose yourself to a lot of ideas. Listen to podcasts you might think will get you angry or bored. Maybe they won’t.
Read things that are not what everybody’s talking about right now. Get a historical sense, because things are more different than you imagine. We all assume the world we grew up into has always been the world, and it’s not true.
Broadening your horizons and the range of ideas you’re willing to think about is the key skill.

What to read: Tocqueville
BW: Finally, for those interested in following your path—or a similar field—what piece of literature would you recommend they read, and why?
​

YL: In my general field, everybody has to read Tocqueville’s Democracy in America. It’s not a book of career advice. It’s not analysis of this moment. But it runs very deep to the character of our society in a way that’s always relevant. I constantly find myself thinking back to it.
If you haven’t read Tocqueville, do yourself a favor. You’ll enjoy it, and you’ll really appreciate it.

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1/16/2026

Ambassador Michael Battle on The Intersection of Ministry, Academia, and Diplomacy

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Ambassador Michael Battle’s career reads less like a linear climb and more like a disciplined practice: ministry, academia, and diplomacy as three distinct vocations—each demanding the same core capacity to lead people through trust. In this conversation, Battle describes how teaching logic and scientific method sharpened his ability to persuade without posturing, and how preaching to many of the same students became a live test of intellectual honesty.
We then trace the unexpected step that brought him to his first ambassadorial assignment—an origin story rooted in helping younger leaders without expecting anything in return. Battle breaks down what embassy life actually looks like, why “normal days” don’t exist, and how commercial diplomacy in Tanzania required the same relationship-building instincts as the pulpit and the classroom.
Finally, Battle explains what it means to “translate reality back home” when Washington’s priorities collide with local context, offers a practical view of democracy promotion beyond performative pressure, and closes with advice for students: cultivate global awareness, learn to disagree without becoming disagreeable, and read biographies—especially of people you don’t agree with.

​-Michael Battle is a former U.S. Ambassador to the African Union and former U.S. Ambassador to Tanzania, as well as a longtime clergy and academic leader.
Three vocations: clergy, academic, diplomat
Ben Wolf: To begin: you’ve been a chaplain, an academic leader, and a diplomat. If you had to describe your career as three vocations rather than job titles, what are they—and what did each teach you about leading people?
​
Ambassador Michael Battle: As an academic, as a member of the clergy, and as a diplomat—those three descriptives fit best, even though I spent almost twenty years in the military, including a period as a military chaplain.
As an academic, I learned the benefit of working with—and challenging—young minds, as young minds challenged me. The reciprocal process was always there. I taught logic and scientific method for most of my academic career, even though I also taught religion. I was assigned many courses in the philosophy department, and logic and scientific method became what I was most known for when I was at Hampton University, while also serving as the university chaplain.
The challenge was teaching people how to think critically, and then getting up on Sunday morning and preaching to many of the same people. I really enjoyed it when a student would come back to class and say, “I listened to your sermon—now let’s critique some of the arguments you tried to make.” That kind of exchange was immensely rewarding.
Serving as an academic administrator was also a pleasure. I was president of a seminary that, at the time, consisted of six different seminaries from six distinctive denominations working together in a consortium—the Interdenominational Theological Center in Atlanta, Georgia. Diverse theological backgrounds, from Presbyterian to Pentecostal to Church of God in Christ. It was quite interesting.
As a diplomat, I discovered that the same skills of building relationships—in ministry and academia—were necessary in building relationships as a diplomat.
My first diplomatic assignment was as U.S. Ambassador to the African Union. I was responsible for multilateral policies of the United States government affecting the entire African continent, working with 54 states—Morocco had left the African Union at that time. Working on policy development and trying to get the African Union to see the necessity of the sustainability goals set forth by the United Nations was quite a challenge—but I enjoyed it.
In the last three years of that four-year assignment, I was also assigned as a U.S. representative to the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, which is the largest UN body on the African continent. My next assignment was as the bilateral ambassador to Tanzania. After Tanzania, I was assigned as the U.S. representative to the East African Community—the EAC—which includes eight countries. So I worked bilaterally, but also multilaterally with EAC countries.
Now, since I taught philosophy, I can give an answer that could last an hour. I don’t want to do that—so I’ll keep it shorter.

BW: Please—go as long as you want. The less I say, the better! This is your interview, after all.

How the first ambassadorship happened: “help without looking for reward”
BW: Before we dive into the day-to-day work, I’m curious: what was the connection or step that led to your ambassadorship at the African Union? Was it someone you knew? How did that position come about?

MB: For a long period of time, I had been active on the African continent. I led academic missions in North Africa and West Africa while at Hampton University, and I directed a very large interdenominational conference of clergy nationwide. I also served as vice chairman of the American Committee on Africa, which at that time was one of the larger and more powerful think tanks on African policy.
Even when I was president of the seminary, because we had so many students from Sudan and other parts of Africa, we decided to internationalize—to develop a more global theological interpretation of texts and a theological interpretation of how to respond to social dynamics. We developed a white paper on how to globalize theology, particularly related to what is now South Sudan—this was before Sudan split.
But the role that actually led to my first ambassadorship came through two young men who were asked by then-candidate Barack Obama to work on his campaign early—before anyone really thought he would win: Paul Monteiro and Joshua DuBois. They were having challenges with older ministers who did not respect the fact that young people had been asked to take such serious roles. I worked with them and helped them bridge gaps with older clergy and open doors.
Joshua DuBois was very close to Barack Obama. He was asked whether there was someone he felt should get an appointment, and he said, “Michael Battle.”
Normally, the process takes a long time. But they looked at my background and called the next day and asked: would you go to the African Union?
I served for four years at the AU, which makes me the longest-serving U.S. Ambassador to the African Union.
The lesson is this: whenever you’re given an opportunity to help someone, do it without regard to whether they’ll ever be in a position to open a door for you. If you authentically respond to someone’s needs without looking for reward—and you find the reward in the helping itself—doors open that intentional networking often won’t open.
And, of course, I had known Barack Obama for some time. When I was vice president at Chicago State University, he was a minor junior state senator—someone nobody thought would be elevated the way he ultimately was. I supported his early efforts, and later his Senate run as well.

“No such thing as a normal day”: Tanzania, trade, and where the real work happens
BW: Let’s get concrete. With your ambassadorship in Tanzania, what did a normal day look like? What time did you start? Where did most of your attention go—bureaucratically, operationally, leadership-wise?

MB: With the African Union, it was peace and security almost 85% of the time.
With Tanzania, I focused on commercial development. One of the accomplishments I’m most proud of is that we developed a commercial dialogue—the first ever developed between the U.S. Department of Commerce and the Tanzanian counterpart. We brought together private and public sector leaders in Tanzania and in the United States to talk about removing trade barriers and making it easier for U.S. companies to invest significantly in Tanzania.
Every now and then I intentionally check on progress, because I still have great relationships with the Tanzanian ambassador to the U.S., and with staff in Tanzania. I’m proud to say that dialogue continues to this day.
Now: there is no such thing as a normal day for an ambassador. It depends on the issues. Sometimes a president will call the entire diplomatic corps to meet in the capital.
In Tanzania, while Dar es Salaam has historically been the capital, the capital moved to Dodoma, more than a hundred miles away. So you can wake up planning to be at the office at 10:00, and someone calls and says, “No—President has asked you to be in Dodoma by 8:00.” Then you’re trying to find transport immediately.
And there are days that go late into the evening because of diplomatic receptions and engagements. I found you often get more work done in those engagements outside your office than you get done in your office.
There were times in Tanzania we dealt with peace and security, but it wasn’t the predominant focus. The predominant focus was building trade relationships.

Translating reality back to Washington: when “the obstacle” isn’t who DC thinks it is
BW: People often imagine the hardest persuasion is convincing foreign counterparts. But sometimes the harder persuasion is internal—Washington, interagency dynamics, politics. Can you describe a time you had to translate reality back home—and what made it difficult?

MB: I’ll give you an example from the African Union and one from Tanzania.
At the African Union, there were times when the National Security Council pushed me to convince the AU to pressure the Libyan transitional government after Qaddafi fell. The U.S. was trying to get Libya’s transitional authorities to collaborate with the African Union, and to get the African Union to pressure them.
We weren’t making headway. So I met with the AU Commissioner for Peace and Security and the AU Chairperson. I asked: why is it that much of the West is pressuring the transitional government in Libya, but you are not?
They said: what the U.S. and the West are not understanding is that the Libyan transitional government had a long history of racist policies toward Black Africans—persecuting them, expelling them, abusing them.
I reported back to Washington. I was told: “Go get proof.”
Working collaboratively—with the AU, with others, and with a French TV station (France 24)—we validated it. Secretary Clinton did not hesitate; once she saw the evidence, she conveyed clearly to the transitional Libyan government: you need to stop abusive behavior if you expect the African Union to work with you—and we will not work with you until you do.
Within weeks, we had the transitional Libyan government meeting with the African Union in Ethiopia.
The difficulty wasn’t that the African Union was unwilling. The reality was that the transitional government’s behavior made cooperation impossible. My job was to convey that—and to push U.S. policy to address the real obstacle.
In Tanzania, there were instances where Washington wanted us to pressure Tanzania to sign on to policy statements—like explicitly affirming Russia as the aggressor and Ukraine’s territorial integrity.
I personally am convinced the world should support Ukraine against Russian aggression. But Tanzania has, since its founding, been non-interventionist when it comes to issues it does not see as directly affecting Tanzania in the moment.
So I had to help Washington understand: our relationship with Tanzania should not rise or fall on a single isolated instance that is philosophically complex for Tanzania. They had intervened in Uganda under Idi Amin—but Uganda is a direct neighbor and part of the EAC. Tanzania saw a direct responsibility there that it did not see in the same way regarding Russia and Ukraine.

Democratic norms and diplomatic leverage: “pressure without context is performative”
BW: I read your Senate confirmation statement where you discussed unconstitutional changes of government and the AU’s stance. When democratic norms are tested on the diplomatic battlefield, what tools are effective in practice versus performative? Where can diplomats shift incentives—and where can’t they?

MB: The performative thing is trying to apply pressure without understanding context. That’s not only performative—it’s a waste of time.
The most effective thing is to get a country to see that it is in its best interest to be democratic—because democratic countries tend to be more economically prosperous, more stable, more constitutionally reliable, and transitions in government tend to be smoother.
The challenge the U.S. has right now is that we are not shining the light on the hill the way we want to. The idea of a “city set on a hill” was part of what made U.S. diplomacy credible: stability, human rights, resistance to aggression, defense of territorial integrity.
Some American diplomats now face the reality that our example is not what it traditionally has been.
But you continue anyway, because U.S. policymaking is temporal—four to eight years, and then it changes. You try to persuade people that America’s deeper commitment to democratic norms, stability, human rights, and territorial integrity is not going to be extinguished in the long run.
And in the meantime, we continue the argument: democracy is better for every nation than governments dominated by dictatorial and totalitarian policymaking. In the long run, most governments recognize that.

Advice to students: global awareness, confidence, and how to disagree without becoming disagreeable
BW: As we wrap up, for students who want to work in diplomacy or global affairs: what should they do that’s not obvious—beyond internships—over the next 12 months to become genuinely useful?

MB: My first foreign policy speech was made in high school at Model United Nations. I was 16 or 17, arguing against the policies of what was then Rhodesia—now Zimbabwe.
The best thing a student can do is develop a passion for international policy—a passion for people around the world—and develop a global sense and a global awareness.
When you take the Foreign Service exam, it will test how you see issues globally and what common-sense approaches you take to solving global problems.
You should develop the sense that there is no global problem without local and national implications—and no local or national problem without global implications.
Also: develop confidence in talking to other people. And confidence in disagreeing without becoming disagreeable—without becoming argumentative. You don’t persuade people by being angry or mean. You persuade people by being consistently passionate about the argument in the sense of logic, not emotion.

What to read: biographies as training in judgment
BW: To close, as is customary with the blog: for those interested in pursuing a career like yours, what’s a piece of literature you’d recommend—and why?

MB: ​As a diplomat, I encourage people to read great biographies. Read the biography of George W. Bush. Read Tony Blair. Read Condoleezza Rice. Bill Clinton. Colin Powell.
Biographies show you how people work—and how people fail. You see small pieces of their lives you’d never think would shape them completely.
One of the best ways I came to understand Barack Obama was reading the biography of his mother—not just his own books.
And don’t only read biographies of people you like. Read biographies of people you don’t like—people who oppose your thinking—because then you get a window into what shaped their positions.
And the last piece of advice: be authentically you.

BW: Ambassador Battle, thank you so much for joining me. 

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1/15/2026

Ambassador Frederick D. Barton on “Peaceful Democratic Change,” Early Warning, and Why This Work Is Really Venture Capital

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Few practitioners have helped build as much of the U.S. government’s modern crisis-response toolkit as Frederick D. Barton. From launching USAID’s Office of Transition Initiatives to helping stand up conflict and stabilization capacity at the State Department, Barton has spent a career working in fragile states—often in the messy hours when institutions are weak, violence is near, and the margin for error is thin.
In this conversation, we discuss the through-line he eventually found for his work, the experience that pulled him into stabilization, what he underestimated about bureaucracy, how domestic politics shaped his approach overseas, and why “early warning” is often simpler than the intelligence community wants to admit. We close with what he looks for in young people entering the field, and the books and essays he still hands to teams.

-Frederick D. Barton is a former senior U.S. official in crisis response and stabilization, including leadership roles at USAID and the U.S. Department of State.
The through-line: “advancing peaceful democratic change”
Ben Wolf: To start with the big picture: for readers who may not be familiar with your path, what’s the through-line of your career? What problem have you most consistently tried to solve?

Frederick D. Barton: I didn’t really have a clear-cut mission statement until I started working at USAID, when I was working on countries in transition. I came up with a slogan for our office—the Office of Transition Initiatives—that was advancing peaceful democratic change. It turned out that was probably my through-line as well.
Before that, I’d worked in domestic politics. I’d worked on a Senate campaign, then for the senator when he won. I ran for office myself. I was a state party chair. So I was working in domestic politics, but I always had an interest in global issues. I helped start the World Affairs Council of Maine because I felt there needed to be more access to these issues—and I was interested in them.
Then I got lucky and got a job in Washington. Luck is a big part of it, but it was something I had in mind. I got the right job because the USAID Administrator had promised Congress he would start a new office to deal with countries in transition. At the time, the big “countries in transition” were mostly in the former Soviet Union.
But the regular bureaucracy really loved the former Soviet Union. There was a lot of money for programming, it was relatively safe, it was traditional development work. So I was left with a portfolio of countries that were in conflict—which I found dynamic. They seize the front page quickly. They become the biggest source of attention.
So I’d say the through-line became advancing peaceful democratic change—and elevating the importance of local people in that effort.

The first wake-up call: “Would you like to go to Haiti in two weeks?”
BW: Before the prestigious titles, was there a first experience that pulled you toward conflict work and stabilization—something that made you think, "this is what matters"?

FDB: I was lucky to have a couple volunteer opportunities when I was living in Maine.
For years I tried to get on an election monitoring mission with the Carter Center or someone like that—and they never selected me. I was in Maine. I wasn’t in play.
But a guy came to Maine and said he worked with the National Democratic Institute. It was this long evening program. We had the ambassador of El Salvador there; he talked too long. I was ready to go home. And my wife said, “Why don’t you go talk to that guy who said he works on election monitoring missions?”
So I went over and talked to him, and almost right away he said: “Would you like to go to Haiti in two weeks?”
It was July in Maine—who would want to go to Haiti? But I couldn’t exactly say, “Why don’t we go to Paris?”
So I went to Haiti. Later on, when I went to Rwanda and places like that, I realized Haiti was much worse off. And it’s right off the U.S. coast. It had been mismanaged by the U.S. and by Haitians as well—and the French, for sure.
Once I started seeing places coming out of difficult periods, it became hard to look away. NDI then invited me to be part of an expert panel in Ethiopia and in Poland. Those experiences helped me get the job at USAID because I didn’t have much formal experience—but it turned out almost nobody did.
I also had family exposure: my father had been a diplomat, I’d lived in these countries, I spoke Spanish. But Haiti was the wake-up call. And it became one of the first countries we worked in when I started the Office of Transition Initiatives at USAID in 1994.

What he’d approach more cautiously: ambition, bureaucracy, and limits
BW: Looking back at your early career, what’s a judgment you were confident in then, but would approach more cautiously now—not because you were wrong, but because experience complicated it?

FDB: My core judgment is about putting people first—local organizing, the opportunities that exist even in tough places, and giving greater voice to local people. Those instincts were good.
I don’t think I ever had a messiah complex—either for what we were doing or for the United States. I tend to look at every case individually, and I like to do lots of local interviews—dozens, hundreds if possible—so we really see what priorities are.
Those instincts helped OTI thrive for about 30 years and be seen as a major asset. The same instincts carried over to starting the Conflict and Stabilization Operations Bureau at the State Department.
One thing I did that worked: I often went for money rather than people. I figured if I had the money, I could find the people, hire the right people, rather than getting stuck with a fixed staff.
I was careful about which countries we picked. Bureaucracies judge whether you’re relevant based on where you end up working. I didn’t get stuck in places I thought would be extraordinarily difficult to move—places where you can pour in effort and still make no meaningful progress.
Entry timing matters—the right “ripeness.” That’s a theory I picked up from a professor, Bill Zartman of Johns Hopkins.
If anything, I probably underestimated how difficult it is to build something new inside the U.S. government. The natural bureaucratic resistance—the inclination to keep doing things the same way—can be intense.
And maybe I overestimated what individuals could do. Maybe I was too ambitious in thinking we could achieve more. These places are fragile.

How domestic politics translated overseas: “This is just like that guy in Maine.”
BW: Ambassador Mark Green once told me that his time in domestic politics shaped how he operated in foreign affairs. For you, did domestic politics influence how you worked on the global stage?

FDB: Absolutely. Tom Friedman once wrote about Clinton becoming good on foreign policy and said: he was obviously good at domestic politics, and foreign affairs is essentially politics on an international scale—so why wouldn’t he be good at it?
There’s direct relevance.
A funny—but influential—lesson for me was this: in many of these places, you’re not always dealing with George Washington types. You’re dealing with lesser figures, let’s say.
I had an experience in Maine when I was party chair dealing with a candidate for governor who was quite erratic. That ended up being instructive for meetings around the world—because I could think: this is just like that guy in Maine.
I was also very attracted to working with women and young people because they were often disenfranchised. If you want to promote change, you go to the people who most want it—or who are least responsible for the status quo. Often that’s women and young people.
That bias came from organizing campaigns in Maine. In my first campaign, we were running against Senator Margaret Chase Smith, a long-term incumbent. When I went into her hometown to organize, nobody was willing to work against her in a visible way—except junior high school kids, their parents, and their mothers.
They were great. The older men would come in and say, “We need a new television commercial,” or some big strategic idea. But those people—kids and their moms—were the ones going door to door, doing the work.
And then there’s communications: if you’re not communicating all the time, you’re probably in trouble. That’s a good lesson from politics.

Speed vs. legitimacy
BW: In crisis response there’s always tension between acting quickly and building legitimate local ownership. How did you decide when speed was essential and when patience was non-negotiable?

FDB: One of the rules in my book Peaceworks is: if you don’t know 100 people in a place, don’t send U.S. soldiers.
And I don’t mean just the Minister of Treasury or your taxi driver. I mean 100 people. That rule would have kept us out of Iraq and Afghanistan, and it should have kept us out of Vietnam. If we’d stayed out of those three, we’d be a very different—and probably better—country.

Venezuela: capability isn’t the same as planning
BW: What do you make of what happened in Venezuela?

FDB: I got rediscovered the last couple of days because I did an NPR interview on Sunday and then another with Ana Cabrera.
As I said then, as usual, we spent hundreds of millions of dollars and months planning a military intervention—and it looks to me like we haven’t spent ten minutes on what comes next.
When the President gets asked: “You say we’re going to run Venezuela—what happens next?” and he turns around to the three guys behind him—the General, the head of the Joint Chiefs, Hegseth and Rubio—that’s probably the extent of the planning.
And there’s carelessness, even if it’s a skilled military operation. It’s like Tulane playing a local high school—it’s not a fair match. Venezuela’s military can enforce a regime, intimidate people, and allow thugs to run loose, but it’s not a war-fighting machine.
The President’s giddiness is out of order. Nobody likes Maduro, but there are sixty guys like him around the world. And this is a crowd that says, “We’re not going to be the world’s policeman.” Well—what is this then? If not military intervention, at least a police intervention.
On legality: it doesn’t hurt to have a few rules. If the U.S. makes up a rule every day, it’s sloppy.

Early warnings
BW: I spoke with Andrew Natsios recently about early warning as the difference between prevention and catastrophe. In your world, what early warning signals do you take most seriously—and how do you avoid reacting to noise?

FDB: I had a boss who once said: you can give me all the intelligence reports in the world, but if I look at Reuters in the morning and 10,000 people have left their homes, that’s a really good early warning.
When people are packing up and moving out—that matters.
After that: random violence showing up in unexpected places. Repression. I once got bawled out for an hour by a Minister of Interior in the Ivory Coast because I asked why they put the leading opposition figure in prison. He said I was invading domestic politics.
At the end of it, I said: the reason I asked is that when these things happen, we often end up with thousands of refugees—and we’re in the business of not producing more refugees. We’d rather not have refugees than process them for the rest of their lives.
He was a little apologetic. They had a coup a month later. He was the first guy seized.
So those are very real indicators.

What separates effective young people: curiosity, judgment, teamwork
BW: When you evaluate young people for roles in this space, what reliably separates the ones who will be effective from the ones who are smart, but not yet useful? What’s the most common mistake?

FDB: First: a fascination with politics.
When I get to Liberia, the first thing I want to see is the newspapers—whatever they have. People mimeographing rags in a basement, running off a copy machine. I want to read what they’re writing, what they think is important.
So: fascination with politics and news; readiness to listen, talk, listen some more; talking to the people of a place—not accepting conventional wisdom.
People arrive and declare: “This is a tribal war,” “a religious war,” “an elite war,” “an economic war.” It’s probably a witch’s brew. I want you to have a better understanding.
Then: being able to make choices. Working well on a team. You’re not going to be the genius by yourself.
Many people are good analysts but not great at coming up with solutions. Fewer people are creative about solutions. It’s tough to come up with ideas.
That’s why I think of this work like venture capital—experiments, pilots, tests. Nothing is precedent unless it works.
Agility, flexibility, making something—and making more out of it. Those are key.

What students should be honest about: risk, luck, and building teams
BW: If you were advising a student today trying to enter this field, what would you want them to be honest about—the tradeoffs, uncertainty, timing, luck? And what’s one skill they can build this semester that compounds over time?

FDB: Once you get experience in one or two places—don’t go straight to Washington. If you can live and work in a country, that’s how you build your reputation. That’s how you get promoted in Washington. Apply your thinking to a real place.
Comfort with risk is important. A lot of people aren’t comfortable with risk—but risk brings high rewards.
I had a boss who called OTI “venture capital.” If we hit on one out of ten countries, we were successful. Whereas USAID sometimes acts like everything it does is brilliant—not possible.
I like measures of progress. I want to know how we’re doing.
Studying a language helps. Working political campaigns—State doesn’t always respect that, but I do. You learn how to manage volunteers. Volunteers are tough: you can’t fire them, you don’t pay them—you have to learn how to lead.
An underappreciated skill set is building teams—creating followership, making common cause. Political appointees often come from the Hill, academia, or a niche subject area. They may know a lot, but they don’t always know how to build a team around an outcome.

What he recommends reading: bureaucracy, coaching, and “why smart people can’t learn”
BW: To close: what’s a book, essay, poem—anything—you’d recommend to someone interested in joining this field?

FDB: They can read my book, Peaceworks. It’s not a memoir, but it lays out how to get things started.
I also think people need what I call a perverse fascination with bureaucracies, because you’re going to work in a big organization. Enjoy it—it’s another challenge.
I read a lot of articles. I used to share two or three articles a week with my staff—challenging ideas in organizational development.
There’s a Harvard Business Review article from a former dean of Yale Law School—something like “why smart people cannot learn”—it’s excellent. And I’d look at Atul Gawande’s pieces in The New Yorker—the one on the bell curve, and the one on coaching. Those are accessible and the kind of things I shared with staff and used in courses.

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1/12/2026

Adam Gallagher on USIP, Threat Inflation, and the Craft of Foreign Policy Writing

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Adam Gallagher is a contributing fellow at Defense Priorities and a foreign policy writer, analyst, and editor. His career has spanned think tanks and implementing organizations, including work at the U.S. Institute of Peace, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and the International Foundation for Electoral Systems, where he helped tell the stories behind democracy-support and election work around the world.
In this conversation for The Pathway Blog, he speaks with Ben Wolf about what it was like to work inside the U.S. Institute of Peace as the broader international development ecosystem faced disruption, how he approaches research and writing in an incentive-driven media environment, and what actually helps students break into foreign policy without connections. Gallagher also argues that “threat inflation” distorts U.S. strategy—connecting that critique to today’s Western Hemisphere rhetoric, including debate around the so-called “Donroe Doctrine.”

This interview has been edited for length and clarity.
USIP, Publishing, and the DOGE Disruption
BW: To start, can you walk me through your time at the U.S. Institute of Peace—what you did there day-to-day, and what changed once DOGE targeted the organization?
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AG: I started at the U.S. Institute of Peace in 2018 as the managing editor of the website. The organization had two publishing sides. One was longer, more academic-style reports. And then there was the website—content that was more newsy foreign policy analysis. That’s what I did for most of the time I was there, but by the end of my tenure I was editor-in-chief, and I oversaw both sides.
USIP was a really interesting place to work. It was founded by Congress during the Reagan administration, and it kind of transmogrified over its existence—from being more of a think tank focused on publishing research and analysis on peace processes and conflict resolution, to doing a lot more groundwork after the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and then moving into Africa and into spaces in Asia and Latin America.
I was never a sort of on-the-ground peacebuilder, but I worked closely with a lot of those folks to get their insights and analysis on how their expertise and know-how could be folded into U.S. foreign policy to address major conflict issues.
It was a great place to work and get a sense for all the different things the U.S. is doing around the world—both good and bad. I either edited, wrote, ghostwrote, or played some role in thousands of pieces being published—hundreds of videos, podcasts. It was a great place to get a sense for what’s happening globally.
You also got a sense of the disparity between how much focus the United States puts on expending resources on building peace, as opposed to security and defense. I think you could make an argument that the work USIP did was all about security and defense of the homeland. Ultimately, the Trump administration didn’t see it that way, but I think most people understand that a more stable world with less conflict is better for America.
Going more to the DOGE aspect: USIP really shifted its rhetoric and messaging, and began talking about how to shift its work to kind of meet the objectives of a Trump administration foreign policy. But it never really got the chance to implement that because we were named in an executive order to be essentially dismantled in February 2025. There’s been a lot of back-and-forth in the courts, but by July 2025, effectively the entire organization had been dismantled. A few Trump administration officials were brought in to kind of keep it running, but I don’t understand how or why.
If you go to the website now, it’s basically a splash page that says something like, “Stay tuned for the latest updates on what Trump’s doing to make peace around the world.”
So, yeah—2025 was a challenging year for me and a lot of friends and colleagues, not only at USIP, but at places like USAID, which is where USIP got some of its funding from—not a huge portion, but some. And similar organizations like the National Endowment for Democracy, the National Democratic Institute, the International Republican Institute. Another organization I used to work for—the International Foundation for Electoral Systems—got a lot of its money from USAID.
So essentially, this whole ecosystem of international development, international aid, peacebuilding, democracy promotion, was undercut overnight, and it has left a huge gap in U.S. foreign policy.

Finding the Field: From Law School Plans to Foreign Policy
BW: Before USIP, how did you decide this was your lane? Was foreign policy the plan in undergrad, or did it emerge job by job?

AG: I started undergrad wanting to be a lawyer, because I have a bunch of lawyers in my family. But over the course of my time, I took classes and did a few summer activities in D.C. that got me more and more interested in foreign policy and international affairs. By the time I graduated, I was pretty certain that’s the path I wanted to pursue for a career.
Immediately after graduating—something I’d recommend you look into—I applied for a scholarship from the State Department called the Critical Language Scholarship. That sent me to Jordan for three or four months where I studied Arabic with about thirty other American students.
Of course, the language aspect was important, but even just being in a different country like that was hugely valuable. It was also a unique time because I was there in 2007. You still had the war in Iraq going on. There were a lot of Iraqi refugees in Jordan.
Jordan is already a country with a ton of refugees. Depending on who you talk to, some would say that 50% of the Jordanian population is made up of Palestinian refugees. If you said that to someone who considered themselves Jordanian-Jordanian, that may make them mad, but in any case: there are a lot of refugees.
You’re basically in the middle of a war zone. Israel and Lebanon were fighting at the time. Some friends and I wanted to go to Lebanon over a weekend, and we were told explicitly not to: you’re not supposed to travel outside the borders of Jordan, but if you go anywhere, don’t go to Lebanon or Iraq.
So I got to go to Syria, which was cool before Damascus became a war zone. I went around the West Bank and Israel. It was an awesome time in my life that really opened my eyes to different ways people are living—and how U.S. foreign policy impacts that. That was a key moment that pushed me further into foreign policy and international affairs as a career.
I came back to Washington and had a couple of beginner jobs—because I just wanted to move to D.C.—that were tangentially related to foreign policy. Then a couple years later, in 2009, I got a job at the Middle East program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, which is a very prominent think tank in Washington. I worked there for four or five years.
A lot of that time was during the Arab uprisings, or what some people call the Arab Spring. We were heavily focused on analyzing those events, disentangling what it meant for U.S. foreign policy, and what role the United States could play. By that point, I had cemented my career path.
I also started a PhD program during that time at George Mason University in international relations. I ultimately ended up just getting my master’s there and not following through on the PhD.

Afghanistan Media Analysis and Election Observation
AG: My next job was brief: I worked for a defense consultancy called SOS International, for a subsidiary that was a media analysis / open-source intelligence wing of a massive government contractor. I worked on media analysis for the U.S. Embassy in Kabul and for NATO staff there.
On my shift, I would read everything being written about Afghanistan in the mainstream U.S. press--The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, Foreign Policy, Foreign Affairs—those kinds of outlets.
And at that time, mostly due to Western funding, there was also a pretty vibrant English-language press in Afghanistan. So I would read everything they were publishing, and then write a summary analysis. It took about six hours to do the reading in a shift, and then about two hours to distill it. It was a cool job. It was intense because you have a short window to distill all that information.
I only did that for a brief period, and then I went to the International Foundation for Electoral Systems, which focuses on elections—helping countries build the building blocks they need to have transparent, credible elections. They work with election management bodies to ensure electoral processes are smooth, free, and fair.
The organization also had a more research-focused wing that looked at best practices for credible elections—things like cyber issues that come up in elections now, hacking voting systems, and so on. I was a writer and editor there. I focused on telling the stories of what the organization did.
The coolest part of that job, by far, was that three times I went as an officially accredited election observer and monitored elections: Liberia, Tunisia, and Myanmar. Those were all really critical elections for those countries.
Tunisia’s was its first post–Arab Spring presidential election. The election in Myanmar is kind of what sadly set the stage for the civil war the country is still going through today. Aung San Suu Kyi and her National League for Democracy won that election. And in Liberia, it was their first peaceful election in the history of the country.
Those were all really cool, unique experiences. I’ve always wanted to be on the policy side—as a researcher, writer, and editor. IFES was more of what I’d call an implementing organization—a “do tank” versus a think tank.
So then I got the job at USIP in 2018.
And then, yeah—DOGE dismantled USIP in July 2025.

Defense Priorities, JQAS, and “Threat Inflation”
AG: Since then, I’ve been working with Defense Priorities, which is a small think tank. I had been a contributing fellow there prior to what happened with USIP, which basically means I write op-eds and other analysis for the organization and participate in messaging and communications work. Since what happened to USIP, I picked that up more.
Last year, I was also a strategic leaders fellow for the John Quincy Adams Society. It’s a fellowship that focuses on mid-career people like me in foreign policy who are interested in promoting restraint and realism in U.S. foreign policy. It included think tank people, congressional staffers, private-sector folks, and even people working in the administration. The goal is to network, help each other career-wise, and talk through how we can promote realism and restraint.
That’s a similar worldview to Defense Priorities. So in my post-USIP life, I’ve been more enmeshed in the restraint community through my research and writing.
I actually had a piece published this morning in World Politics Review about what’s often touted as the “axis of authoritarianism”—China, Russia, North Korea, Venezuela, and Iran—and how it’s supposedly this implacable coalition dead set on destroying the U.S.-led international order.
I think that’s bogus. And I think there are a couple examples we’ve seen recently. The U.S. bombing of Iran in June, and then what happened over the weekend with Nicolás Maduro—you didn’t see any of these countries come to the defense of their so-called ally in this axis. So I think this is a perfect example of how U.S. foreign policy and the foreign policy establishment inflate threats, which ultimately distorts our foreign policy and makes it something that doesn’t serve America’s interests.

How the Research-and-Writing Process Works
BW: I want to come back to that “threat inflation”—especially in the context of the so-called “Donroe Doctrine,” which I’ve been reading about recently. But first: your day-to-day work is research-heavy. What does your research process actually look like—how do you choose a question, pressure-test assumptions, and know when you’re ready to publish?

AG: Great set of questions. For me, I spend the first part of every day scanning what’s going on in the world—reading analysis and takes—and then try to develop ideas from there.
From there, I talk to people I know who work on those issues—whether it’s someone in the private sector impacted by an event or development, fellow think tank people, or people in government. I use those conversations to develop my specific take or perspective.
I’m always sitting with like fifteen Word documents up on my computer—different articles, different ideas. It would be crazy to say that every one of them ultimately results in something published. Sometimes it becomes a piece; sometimes it moves into something else—like helping produce videos, coming up with concepts.
You have to keep working through it until you feel like you’ve hit on something and have something interesting to say. There’s so much content out there—some of it really good, some of it terrible, and not grounded in reality, or so partisan and ideological that it’s worthless to engage with.
I never want anything I put out there to come across that way. I want somebody to think I came to an issue—or the argument I’m making—through a rigorous process of testing these ideas out, and then trying to articulate them, which I think is often the most difficult part.
I spend a lot of time walking my dog and using that as a moment to think. There are a lot of times where I’m halfway through the walk and I think, That’s it—I hit on it. And I come home, sit down in front of my laptop, and try to put it into words—and it just doesn’t work for whatever reason.
The research side of it is typically the easiest part. I think the writing part, as much as I like to write, can be the most torturous part—trying to articulate your ideas in a way that is (1) novel and interesting, and (2) compelling enough for people to engage with.

Breaking In Without Connections: What Works, What’s Overrated
BW: For students without personal connections in foreign policy, what actually works for breaking in—and what’s overrated? Is it cold emailing, publishing early, conferences, grad school, programs?

AG: My biggest overarching advice is: you have to put yourself out there. You have to do the kind of things that you’re doing, Ben. You have to say, “This is what I want to be,” and you have to risk embarrassment. You have to risk being ignored or hearing “no” over and over again.
If you want to pursue a career in this field, it’s a small world—made even smaller by what DOGE did, frankly. To break in, you have to be persistent.
I would definitely recommend publishing as much as possible. There are a lot of outlets out there, and many of them are thirsty for content. You’ll have places like The New York Times that get hundreds of op-ed pitches a day, but there are a lot of really good outlets that people read and that want as many writers as they can get.
Of course, being in the Times or The Washington Post is important, but just being published somewhere is valuable. You can send that link to someone interviewing you for a job or to contacts who may share it.
I had a little dispute once with someone who was pitching a piece I wrote to an outlet that I didn’t care about. I wanted a more prominent outlet. I lost, and the media relations guy had it published there. Within a half hour, I had three different people—colleagues, some of whom are very well known in the field—say, “Oh hey, I just saw your piece.”
That taught me not to obsess about where your byline is. It doesn’t always have to be the most prominent place. Getting your name out there is the most important thing.
Unfortunately, grad school is pretty important because people want to see those letters after your name. It does matter. I would say journalism might be the one place where it’s not necessarily as required as it is in the think tank community. But I don’t come across a lot of analysts or editors in the think tank world who don’t have a master’s or a PhD.
Conferences can be useful from a networking perspective, but I’d put that at the bottom of the list. You go, you meet dozens of people, and you forget about them unless they keep reaching out to you. And now we can do things like this—you can cold email me out of nowhere, and now we’re having a robust conversation versus a thirty-second one at a conference.

Intellectual Honesty in a Hot-Take Incentive Structure
BW: How do you stay intellectually honest when the incentives reward the outrageous—the quicker story, the hotter take? What does that honesty mean to you?

AG: It means everything for me. If I was willing to sacrifice it, I think I could publish anywhere, any day, anytime. A lot of people could.
I have a specific perspective on the issues I work on. I want that perspective promoted and advanced because I think it would make for a better world. And I think it would also make Americans’ lives better.
If I can’t come away from a piece and feel good seeing it published and having people engage with the arguments—whether they’re trashing them or praising them—I couldn’t look myself in the mirror.
Even working at a place like USIP was a challenge in that regard because it was congressionally funded. We always had this sword of Damocles hanging over our head: if we somehow contravened what Congress wanted, we could have our funding cut. That was a challenging thing to square at USIP.
It’s easier in my current role.

The “Donroe Doctrine,” Latin America, and Greenland
BW: In the wake of Venezuela—and the administration’s recent rhetoric about Greenland and the Western Hemisphere—what do you make of the justifications being offered? What’s real, what’s inflated, and what do you think the next steps will be?

AG: So, I don’t think in Latin America this is going to do anything to pull away China or get countries to sever their relationships with Beijing. For many countries in Latin America, China is already the top trading partner. And China’s diplomacy in Latin America is largely focused on economics and trade. It’s not overly securitized.
Countries don’t want to be bullied. They don’t want to be told what to do. Even Venezuelans who hate Maduro—who maybe had a family member tortured or killed by that regime—don’t necessarily want foreigners coming in and saying, “This is how you have to run your country.” You saw that in the war in Iraq: people who hated Saddam fought against the U.S. occupation.
China has conducted its foreign policy in Latin America—like it has in much of the Global South—in a transactional way. “We want this critical mineral,” or “we want to sell you this infrastructure—an airport, a port,” and they want Chinese companies involved. Those countries need development, and they’re happy to work with a country that’s not going to lecture them about human rights or drug trafficking or whatever the case may be.
I think what the Trump administration has done in Venezuela will accelerate trends in this growing Global South coalition that’s looking to refashion how the international order works today. You see this in movements like BRICS, which started as Brazil, Russia, India, China, then South Africa, and has expanded with other Global South countries interested in joining. Part of that is to get away from the dominance of the dollar and U.S. finance and trade restrictions.
But a big part of it, too, is that a lot of countries in the Global South see the hypocrisy of the U.S. and the U.S.-led order. They see the response to Ukraine and the response to Gaza as contradictory. They see that the U.S. applies international law to its adversaries and to weak states—and lets itself or its allies off scot-free. I think the Venezuela operation is a perfect example of that. And I think it will expand Chinese influence in Latin America, ultimately, because these countries are going to want to work with reliable partners who aren’t bullying them.
Russia is not quite as important in the Latin America case, but the same broad principles apply in terms of bullying and hypocrisy.
When it comes to Greenland, I don’t think the administration is going to do anything as dramatic as we saw over the weekend in Venezuela. Greenland is part of Denmark, which is a NATO ally. I think the administration has to have somewhere in the back of its mind a calculation that this kind of move would undercut the far right in Europe, which it’s tried to support and view as a natural ally. And it would have really negative impacts there.
I think the next steps are continued rhetorical pressure. We’ll see a lot of talk about how Greenland is part of America’s sphere of influence. And there’ll be an effort, through rhetorical pressure, to come to some accommodation where the U.S. has greater access to critical minerals or something like that on Greenland. We already have extensive basing rights there, so I don’t really understand what else the administration would want.
More broadly, I think the Venezuela operation, the rhetoric about Greenland, and talk about Mexico, Cuba, and Canada are ultimately about the perspective of some people in the administration that the Western Hemisphere is America’s natural sphere of influence, international law doesn’t matter, we’re a superpower, and we can do whatever we want in our part of the world.
You can see a lot of this reflected in the new national security strategy, which turns the orientation of U.S. foreign policy toward the Western Hemisphere and away from conflicts in Europe or potential conflict with China over Taiwan.

High-ROI Skills: Building an Analyst from Scratch
BW: If you were building an analyst from scratch, what skills compound most over time—writing, methods, languages, regional expertise?

AG: I’m biased because my entry point into a lot of this has been editing and writing, but good writing skills are probably the most important thing in this world.
You can make your life a lot easier by being a good, concise, clear writer. Editors want to work with people like that. You can get your stuff published easier if some editor doesn’t have to spend a day disentangling every sentence.
Being a good writer also helps you test your thinking. I have moments where I have an idea that seems great, and then if I sit down and I can’t articulate it, I know it’s not a good idea. If I can’t explain it in a couple sentences—or in a way that an average person who’s not steeped in the field can understand—then it’s not ready.
And writing helps in everything from a convincing cover letter, to pitching a project to your boss. If you can write something compellingly, you’re more likely to get the job or get the project greenlit.
Language skills can be important, definitely—but it depends on your trajectory. If you want to be a Japan expert, obviously knowing Japanese is important. You can go to the country, talk to people, read primary sources.
I’m more of a U.S. foreign policy generalist. I did study Arabic, but it’s not something I use every day in my work. If you want to be an editor like I am, being a generalist is helpful. I know a decent amount about a lot of places and issues, and I can test ideas—“What you’re saying contradicts what I know; explain why.”
So to a certain extent it depends on where you want your career trajectory to go. But I’ll finish by saying: focus on your writing. As somebody who’s edited hundreds of U.S. foreign policy experts in the D.C. think tank space, it’s not something you can take for granted. The people who are strong writers tend to be more prominent, and their analysis tends to be more influential.

BW: That makes sense. In earlier interviews I’ve heard both sides—Bret Stephens made a strong case for becoming an expert in a specific region, while Sarah Kreps argued for a more generalist approach tied to a theme like technology. Your point seems to be that it depends on the role you want.

AG: Yeah, definitely.

The Most Common Mistake in Young Foreign Policy Writing
BW: To close: what’s a common mistake you see in young foreign policy writing—and beyond “write more,” what practical habits help fix it?

AG: A big mistake I see in younger folks—because I edited a lot of younger foreign policy professionals, especially at USIP—is wanting their writing to be the skeleton key or silver bullet to whatever issue they’re discussing, as though their 800-to-1,200-word piece is going to be the authoritative analysis.
Instead, focus on constructing a sound argument. Even if somebody else has made the argument before, you can put your own spin on it. It doesn’t have to be a brand new shiny thing. And the pursuit of the brand new shiny thing often stymies people from being able to finish.
Somebody would come to me with a pitch, and I would say, “This is a good idea, but instead of hitting all five points, let’s focus on these two key things. You can touch briefly toward the end on the others.” People can get stuck on the adjustment an editor suggests.
So, one: be willing to take criticism. A lot of times these folks are smart people with advanced degrees from really good schools, and they think, “Well, I have an idea—it must be the most important idea—so it must be worthy of being published.” But that’s why there are editors. That’s why there are peers—to pressure test these ideas.
Two: be willing to think smaller scale in what you’re focusing on.
And then—maybe as a natural wrap to the first part of our conversation—be willing to put yourself out there and risk being criticized. A lot of times that’s another impediment: “This is what I think, but I don’t want people to come after me for it.” If you’re not willing to take that risk and put yourself out there, you’re probably not going to advance, especially if you’re working in a field that’s about promoting and advancing ideas.

BW: Adam, thank you. This conversation was incredibly rewarding, and I learned a lot in a short time. I really appreciate you taking the time.

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1/9/2026

Jonathan Rose on What Diplomacy Really Looks Like, Crisis Decision-Making, and the Hidden Costs of Serving Abroad

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Jonathan Rose is a U.S. Foreign Service Officer who has spent the past fourteen years working across the day-to-day machinery of American diplomacy—starting in the State Department’s Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs, then serving overseas in places including Saudi Arabia and the Philippines, and later rotating through Washington assignments that touched cyber and digital policy, Congress, and religious freedom.
In this conversation for The Pathway Blog, Rose breaks down what the job actually is (and isn’t); why most diplomacy is slow, incremental work; what negotiations look like in practice; how to stay disciplined in moments of crisis; and what young people should understand about both the rewards and the personal tradeoffs of a life spent moving from post to post.

This transcript has been lightly edited for length and clarity.
A Career Without a Neat Narrative
Benjamin Wolf: For readers who may not know your path, what’s been the through line of your career—and what problem have you consistently tried to work on?

Jonny Rose: I’ll give a quick summary of how I got to where I am today, but I want to preface it by saying: we should all be skeptical of folks who present a very clear narrative of their careers.
In retrospect, it’s always easy to craft a story--and then I did this, and for this reason I did that—but the reality is there’s a lot of randomness. There’s a lot more trying things that didn’t work out that folks often conveniently leave off of their LinkedIn pages and such.
Having said that: I grew up in Connecticut, then came to Georgetown in 2006, a few years after 9/11 and the U.S. invasion of Iraq, when Middle East policy was very front and center. I started studying Arabic and the history and politics of the Middle East, and spent a lot of time in the region as an undergrad. As a Jewish American, I really appreciated the opportunity to engage in dialogue with Arab and Muslim communities—to talk about issues and try to build understanding. Those were formative experiences for me, and they’ve guided my career much to this day.
I ended up staying at Georgetown for an extra year to do a combined Bachelor’s/Master’s degree at the Center for Contemporary Arab Studies. From there, I went to the State Department as a Presidential Management Fellow. I worked as a civil servant in the Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs for a few years on a number of country desks, focusing on U.S. relations with Jordan, Lebanon, and Egypt, and had the chance to go to our embassy in Cairo for a few months on a temporary assignment.
I really enjoyed the work and found it very interesting, and so decided to switch over to the Foreign Service side. My first assignment was in Saudi Arabia, then the Philippines. Since then, I’ve had a number of assignments in Washington, including in the Bureau of Cyberspace and Digital Policy. I also did an assignment in Congress as a Pearson Fellow, and I’m currently with the Office of International Religious Freedom.
 
From PMF to Foreign Service: Strategy vs. Curiosity

BW: You said you’re skeptical of people who claim there’s a straight through line in their careers. When you were moving from your PMF work to the Foreign Service, what was your sense of where your career was heading then? Were you uncertain entering the Foreign Service, or was that something you wanted to do since undergrad?

JR: Here’s the thing: When I arrived at Georgetown, I was not thinking about the Foreign Service at all. I was an undecided major. I wasn’t even initially in the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown.
In my first year, I quickly took to my Middle East studies courses, so I switched into the School of Foreign Service and started studying Arabic. Even at that time, I didn’t necessarily see myself going into government.
But as I entered my Master’s program, thought more about future paths, and then was a recipient of the Presidential Management Fellowship, government service seemed like an interesting and unique opportunity, so I went for it—and here I am fourteen years later.
Especially early on, I was not necessarily pursuing my career in a very strategic way. I was taking assignments and thinking, Oh, I didn’t like that as much—maybe I’ll try something else. Or, That seems really interesting—let’s go do that.
When I talk to young people about how to structure their careers, I usually advise them to be 70% driven by what’s interesting and exciting to them, and maybe 30% thinking about the medium- and long-term plan if they pursued a particular path. 
 
What Diplomacy Actually Looks Like Day-to-Day
BW: For people outside government, the State Department can often feel opaque in terms of the work it does. In your time at State, what did you find was most misunderstood about how diplomacy works on a day-to-day level?

JR: We have this image in our head about different careers—medicine, diplomacy, anything—that’s often very different from the day-to-day.
On TV, doctors are often performing emergency surgery—rushing in, operating—but as we know, that’s a very small percentage of medical work. Same with lawyers—the TV image of litigating in front of a judge is of course a tiny percentage of what most lawyers do.
And same with diplomacy—Our image is people in tuxedos clinking glasses with other diplomats, telling fancy stories—that’s maybe 1% of the work. Most of it is writing reports, going to meetings, having important conversations—but not often “sexy” or high-profile work.
Diplomacy is slow. It’s incremental. It’s absolutely crucial, but you often don’t get to see the fruits of your labor—certainly rarely in the short term. Sometimes in the medium or long term you’ll see things develop in a way you helped shape. But it takes time. It’s slow, steady work.
 
How Negotiations Really Work
JR: I’ll give one example. When I was working in the Bureau of Cyberspace and Digital Policy, I was involved in negotiations for a compact at the OECD—the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development—related to protecting freedom of speech.
After over a year of negotiation, the compact was finalized, but only after I had left the office. And here’s the thing—that was still just the first step. Once the compact is in place, it’s basically a framework of guidelines for countries to use to implement legislation on that topic if they want. It’s a best practices document. The actual effects—dependent on countries passing and implementing legislation—are potentially years down the line.

BW: Within those negotiations, is it mostly one-on-one meetings with another representative—knowing what you want, what you can give up—or is it more like email exchanges and internal back-and-forth?

JR: It’s all of that.
You’ll have a long draft document that has to be reviewed by various subject matter experts within the State Department and elsewhere in the U.S. government, especially the lawyers. That’s where the art of diplomacy comes in. We know the U.S. ideal outcome. We know our red lines—what we simply cannot accept. The question is: how close can we get the final document to the ideal outcome? Where are we going to yield in the desire to get a final deal?
You have to have good relationships with interlocutors from other countries. You have to understand what their constraints are. You have to build coalitions with other countries—get them to help you on some things, and help them on other things. That’s the magic.
 
Decision-Making in Moments of Crisis
BW: Working within governance and foreign affairs for fourteen years now, what are the first questions you ask in periods of crisis to avoid reacting to noise and decide what’s actually worth focusing on?

JR: In a crisis situation, the first thing you want to understand is: what are the decision points? What’s the timeline? Do we need a decision in 30 minutes? In 12 hours? In a week?
That tells you how much time you have to gather information, understand context, and ask: is there precedent? What happened last time?
We see on TV this idea of quick and decisive action, and there’s a place for that. But the best decisions are informed by context and information gathered through engaging with those in the know, keeping abreast of the latest developments, and so on.
I’ll give a less consequential example, but I think it’s instructive. In a previous assignment—I can’t get into too many details—we received a gift from the leader of an allied country of perishable food that was intended for the White House. There were a number of hurdles: The food showed up at a U.S. airport—how do we get it through customs in light of Department of Agriculture regulations? And generally, it’s very difficult to give food gifts to high-ranking U.S. officials because of safety concerns—anything from food poisoning to more sinister possibilities.
So we had to take it step by step: What do we need to do tonight? Is the food refrigerated? Is there danger it spoils? Who are our interlocutors elsewhere in the U.S. government—who can we talk to about this basically novel issue, at least to us. So you gather information, you go to your contacts, and you keep your higher-ups informed.
 
A Habit That Matters: Reading Cables
BW: What have been some of the most effective habits—or moments where you consistently approached the work with a mindset—that you think contributed to your success?

JR: Reading cables. That’s definitely something I prioritize and I think is important.
We like to joke that within the State Department, we have a “foreign affairs magazine” with the lowest circulation in the world—and that’s our diplomatic cable distribution: reports from U.S. embassies and consulates around the world that go back to Washington, and to other embassies.
They have a real wealth of information because our diplomats overseas engage with consequential people—business executives, politicians, civil society leaders, and many more—and they send that information back to Washington. I always prioritized reading those reports to make sure I understand what was happening on the ground.
 
What Separates a Great Memo from an Average One
BW: On that note, what separates a truly effective policy memo or cable from an average one? Framing, clarity, evidence, the ask?

JR: Most simply: value add.
These days there’s so much open-source information available compared to, say, fifty years ago.  Back then, people didn’t have news alerts on cell phones. If there was breaking news in another country, sometimes embassy reporting was providing context that wasn’t available elsewhere.
Now, a lot of information is readily available through news and social media, so the best cables I’ve seen do two things:
First, they combine reporting from different offices and functions within the embassy, including the political, economic, military, and other aspects. Bringing in different forms of expertise makes something extremely effective.
Second, sometimes cables are written jointly across countries—multiple embassies reporting together—which can be very useful because that reveals macro trends. I’m excited to see how AI will allow us to do this more effectively and detect those trends across reporting.
 
Rewards: Perspective on the United States
BW: What’s been the most rewarding part of the last fourteen years for you?

JR: The people—and the perspective.
Embassies have all sorts of folks: military, State Department, Department of Commerce, USAID, Department of Homeland Security, and on. They represent different facets of American society. And when you’re making decisions in an embassy, you’re balancing different interests.
Being in the Foreign Service gives you a more balanced perspective on the United States. It lets you see the great things about the U.S., but also the things we need to work on, in the context of living in other countries.
It also makes you thankful for what we have. I’ve met amazing people in many countries achieving incredible things within their circumstances, but they make me think: If this person were in the U.S., they’d be able to achieve so much more.
That’s not to say the U.S. is a utopia—you also notice the flaws and challenges, both through comparison and because foreigners ask you pointed questions about various aspects of American society and culture. Overall, gaining perspective on the United States is something I’ve found very valuable.
 
Costs: Security, Distance, and Missing Life at Home
BW: On the flip side: what’s the least discussed cost of national security and foreign policy work—something you didn’t fully consider before entering the field?

JR: I’ll answer in two ways.
Institutionally, security is a major challenge. U.S. diplomats are under constant threat, with a recent high-profile example of this being the murder of Ambassador Chris Stevens and other embassy staff in Benghazi in 2012, and when incidents like that happen, security requirements rightfully increase for U.S. embassies around the world.
Today, when we build new embassies, they have specific and extensive security requirements. That often means embassies are not in the city center, where meeting security requirements is often more challenging. That makes the work of diplomacy harder--having lunch with a contact takes more travel, more coordination. Security requirements are absolutely necessary—American diplomats are targeted in many countries—and balancing those demands with the work of diplomacy is an ongoing challenge.
On a personal level, spending long periods abroad can be super fun and rewarding, but sometimes it also means missing important events back home—birthdays, weddings, funerals. Friendships can be harder to maintain if you’re moving from place to place. Frequent moves and spending the majority of your time abroad can be a challenge for one’s personal life.  
 
Advice to Students: Curiosity, Conversations, and Cold Outreach
BW: If you were advising a student trying to enter this field, what would you tell them about experiences or habits—perhaps things you did in college—that set you up for success?

JR: Find things that interest you and spend time engaging on those issues.
At your university, there are probably professors doing interesting work on topics you care about—and they’re often looking for research assistants. That’s a way to get experience.
If you’re in a big city with government agencies, nonprofits, or private-sector organizations, internships in a field of interest are another way to get experience.
And as you do those things, take the time to have conversations with people. Have coffee or lunch with them and ask them what their work actually looks like—what they love, what they hate. People are usually very happy to talk. And sometimes the most important things in those conversations are the things left unsaid -- how do people talk about their careers? Do they have regrets? Are they excited about what’s next?
Also, don’t be afraid to cold-call on LinkedIn or by email. Most people are eager to chat with students and give advice, even if they don’t know you. Put yourself out there!
 
Two Book Recommendations
BW: Last question—as is customary with the blog—if there’s a student interested in this field and wanting to follow a pathway like yours, what’s a book, essay, or piece of literature they should read, and why?

JR: I’ll give two books—one fiction, one nonfiction. They’re both coincidentally about the Vietnam War, but they focus on very different aspects.
On the fiction side: The Sympathizer by Viet Thanh Nguyen. It’s a spy novel and a refugee story—really fantastic. It grapples with the role of America in the world, and what that looks like domestically and internationally.
The other book is Diplomats at War by Charles Trueheart. It’s about the real-life relationship between the author’s father, William Trueheart, who was Deputy Chief of Mission at the U.S. Embassy in Saigon, and his boss and close friend, Ambassador Frederick Nolting. It shows how their friendship fell apart because of policy disagreements about the war and how events unfolded. It’s compelling because you get the work perspective, the family perspective, the bureaucratic wrangling within the U.S. government, the geopolitical context, and more.

BW: I’m actually going to Vietnam this summer for about a month through an international studies program at Tulane, so I’m definitely going to check those out before I go. Jonny, thank you again for your time. This has been incredibly informative. It’s been a real honor.

JR: Thanks so much for having me.

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1/6/2026

Ambassador Christopher R. Hill on Leadership, Career Service, and the Craft of Diplomacy

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Christopher R. Hill is a career U.S. diplomat who has served as U.S. Ambassador to Serbia, Iraq, South Korea, Poland, and North Macedonia, and previously served as Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs. He also led U.S. efforts as the chief negotiator in the Six-Party Talks aimed at addressing North Korea’s nuclear program.
In this Pathway Blog conversation, Hill reflects on what the Peace Corps taught him about American responsibility, why institutional legitimacy is more fragile than most people admit, how Foreign Service careers actually move, and what leaks often reveal about confidence inside a system.

This transcript has been lightly edited.
​Peace Corps and the Weight of “Being America”
Ben Wolf: Ambassador Hill—Looking back at your early career, what experiences most shaped how you think about diplomacy—not just what you believed, but how you learned to operate inside complex institutions and negotiations?

Christopher R. Hill: Let me start with something that was not terribly complex: the Peace Corps. Not complex in the sense that we weren’t dealing with a lot of different institutions—but complex in what it teaches you.
Many Americans don’t understand this: no one is indifferent about the United States. Everyone has expectations of the U.S. Of course there are detractors, but nobody is indifferent.
So any young American living abroad—as I was in the Peace Corps—realizes that when you say something, people listen. That gives us responsibility, and it’s something we all need to think harder about.
I was always struck by the fact that if there weren’t a United States in the world, someone would have to create one—because we’ve been (a term I hate) the “residual superpower,” but nonetheless, in many instances we’ve been the country that has kept the peace. And now it seems we have Americans who don’t understand that, and who think we’ve somehow been victimized by this role—without understanding that this role has not only secured peace, but has also secured our leadership. That’s a win-win.
But we have many Americans who think it’s been an onerous task—something we have to get out from under.

BW: The Peace Corps was right out of college and you entered the Foreign Service pretty soon after?

CH: Correct. I took the Foreign Service exam while I was in the Peace Corps. I rode my Suzuki 125 dirt bike down to Douala—which had a two-person consulate at the time—and I took the exam there.

BW: Before the Peace Corps, did you already know you wanted to enter the Foreign Service?

CH: My dad was in the Foreign Service, so I was aware of it. That wasn’t necessarily something I wanted to follow, but I knew enough about it to have my eyes open—about the lifestyle and the challenges.
But when I was in the Peace Corps, I decided that’s what I wanted to do.

What Stays Constant Across Regions: Institutions and Fragility
BW: When you look back across posts as different as East Asia, Iraq, and the Balkans, what’s the one thing that stayed constant about how diplomacy actually works—regardless of the region?

CH: Every country has problems. Every country is unique—but not all its problems are unique. So you start to recognize patterns.
And one pattern is that institutions are very fragile things. Countries that are not doing well are countries that don’t have faith in their institutions. And when people don’t have faith in institutions, they retreat to older loyalties designed to protect them—including tribalism.
So if you don’t have civil society in a place like Iraq, and people don’t trust the state, they retreat into tribal affiliations. They find security in origin—tribal origin. But those affiliations aren’t going to lead the country in a better way.
The lack of faith in institutions is a huge problem in every country, because institutions are something you have to work on every day. You have to believe in them as serving the common good.
And frankly, it’s astounding to me that when I used to talk about countries like Iraq having crises of institutions, it’s now the world’s oldest democracy—the United States—that seems to be having these crises and reverting to forms of tribalism: loyalties to religion, national origin, even the color of your skin. There’s much to be worried about.

How Foreign Service Careers Actually Move
BW: You’ve served in many different regions. When you shifted from post to post—was that something you initiated? And more broadly: how much say does someone have in which region they want to be an ambassador in?

CH: Your audience should understand: if you’re a career Foreign Service officer, it’s like the military—you don’t start out as a general. You don’t start out as an ambassador. You start out as a junior officer and work your way up.
Your earlier assignments may shape later preferences. My first assignment was in what was then called Yugoslavia. And it became especially interesting when it began to collapse and wars developed: wars of secession and succession as countries broke up.
That became a major interest of mine, but I didn’t want to do just one thing. I think it’s important not to tie yourself to one set of issues, but to be willing to go to things that are less intellectually comfortable—but no less challenging.
So I took on different assignments. For example: Korea early on, and then later I came back as ambassador. Poland as a relatively junior officer, then later I came back as ambassador. Think of it as two trips around the track.

BW: Practically speaking, how does that work? Are you going to the Secretary of State and saying, “This is what I want”? Or is it more informal?

CH: Ideally, you’re not going to anyone—people are coming to you. Ideally, you have skill sets the institution wants, and you get a call: “We have this assignment. We think you’d be good at it.”
And when I say “they,” I’m not talking about the Secretary of State—except maybe for very senior ambassadorships.
Now, you can register your interest. When I finished in Poland, I did get in touch with the Secretary of State at the time—Colin Powell—and told him I’d be very interested in going to Korea. He might not have thought of me for Korea, because he knew me from the Balkans and Poland and might not have realized my earlier Korea experience.
So yes—you do have to let people know. You can’t expect a system with thousands of officers to keep you top of mind.
But people who spend all their time marketing themselves are usually not doing enough of what they need to do. So I wouldn’t make self-promotion your full-time job. And if the system isn’t seeing it the way you see it, maybe you need to adjust your expectations.

Career Service vs Political Service—and the Role of Luck
BW: In an earlier interview, I spoke with Elliott Abrams. One thing he emphasized was the role of luck in government—timing, networks, administrations. You’ve served under presidents of both parties. How did that work, and what do you make of his point?

CH: I want to be clear: I didn’t “serve in parties.” I served in administrations led by different parties. I’m a career person. I took the exam. I took the oral exam. I schlepped my way up from the bottom. That’s what career people do.
If you enter as a party-affiliated person, you’re dependent on your party winning elections. Republicans bring in political appointees; Democrats do too. Not to displace career people, but to supplement them.
And you see it in recruiting pipelines. If you’re at a Republican-affiliated think tank, you’re more likely to be tapped by a Republican administration. If you’re at Brookings or the Center for American Progress, you’re more likely to be tapped by a Democratic administration. That’s a different track from joining the Foreign Service.
Foreign Service officers, like military officers, have generally tried to keep their political views to themselves.
Now, you hear accusations that the Foreign Service is “just Democrats.” That’s not true. If you did a census, maybe you’d find more Democrats than MAGA aficionados—but to say Foreign Service officers are ipso facto Democrats is not fair.
And yes—there’s luck in public life. In the sense of knowing people who take an interest in you and are willing to make calls—there’s no question that happens.

Persuasion vs Performance—and the Shadow of Force
BW: You’ve operated in some of the highest-stakes negotiations of the past few decades. How much of diplomacy is persuasion—and how much is performance meant to signal resolve or restraint to audiences who aren’t in the room?

CH: With social media and modern public diplomacy, you see more performative behavior than you used to.
Now, I’ll contradict myself: Henry Kissinger was famously media-savvy and sometimes used the press to gain leverage. So it’s not new—but it’s intensified.
At bottom, diplomacy is trying to convince the other side to do something they don’t want to do. Argument helps—trying to show them what’s in their interest—but it’s rare that someone suddenly says, “You’re right, I never thought of it that way, I’m changing course.”
So you look at incentives. “If you do this, we’ll do that.” Or you “sweeten the pot”—for example, arranging a leader-to-leader meeting. Leaders can market that back home.
And then there’s the extreme: the possibility of force. Americans in recent years have talked too casually about using force.
Clausewitz said war is a continuation of politics by other means—and also that war is a serious means to a serious end. Once you’re dropping bombs, it’s hard to un-drop them. It’s hard to stop without achieving your aims.
So you exhaust peaceful means, and you try to make the other side understand: we can travel this road together. But if we can’t find a solution, you may be on your own.

Management, the DCM Track, and Leadership
BW: Ambassadorship is often romanticized as negotiation and representation. In practice, how much of the job is organizational leadership—managing people, bureaucracy, interagency friction?

CH: Ideally, you’ve had serious management experience. Most career ambassadors have come through the Deputy Chief of Mission role.
A DCM is managing the internal aspects of an embassy. The DCM looks inward; the ambassador looks out. And in the Foreign Service, most management training is on-the-job: budgets, personnel issues, discipline, all of it.
But the ambassador role is a step above management. It’s leadership.
You have to get people to follow where you’re going—not literally up a mountain path, but in terms of mission. People have to believe in what you’re doing and believe that subscribing to your approach is the best way to get there.
Leadership is getting people to go where they might not have gone if you weren’t there—and instilling confidence that you’ll get them there. When people doubt you’ll get them there, they don’t want to be on that team.
One of the problems with appointing ambassadors whose only qualification is that they’re a friend of somebody’s is that people underneath them can’t say, “I’m following this person because they know what they’re doing.” Because maybe they don’t.
Putting people with real experience in the right positions—that’s a full-time job, and it has to be done well. Otherwise you get fragmentation and dysfunction.

Leaks, History, and the “Thin Fact Base”
BW: I recently interviewed David Sanger of The New York Times, and one of the things we talked about was how major diplomatic plans, like the since-revised 28-point Ukraine Peace Plan, can leak—he told me he wasn’t surprised at all that it did.
How has the erosion of confidentiality—from leaks to social media—changed diplomacy?

CH: Well, if I’m David Sanger--who’s a good friend of mine, I might add--I don’t mind leaks at all.
But if I’m doing my job, I sure mind them.
Leaks often signal a lack of confidence in the system. Sometimes it’s people pushing their own agenda rather than the agenda set by leadership—whether the Secretary of State or an Assistant Secretary. It’s a symptom of a system that’s not functioning well.
Often it’s a breakdown in communication. People don’t feel brought into a process. They don’t understand the purpose. They don’t have confidence in what they’re being asked to execute.
And on issues like Ukraine—among the most consequential questions the world faces—complexity matters. When leadership doesn’t embrace complexity or understand historical antecedents, you get mistakes and mistrust.
In other countries, when people say “that’s history,” they mean the background you must master to make progress. In America, “that’s history” often means “that’s irrelevant.” I’m not on that side. You’re not going to understand what’s going on now unless you know what went on before.
A big problem right now is Americans aren’t doing their homework. You’ve got to read until your eyes fall out. Then you have to listen—really listen—more than you talk.
And another problem—probably amplified by the internet—is that people’s opinions are way out of proportion to what they know. Too often, even senior leadership skates on a thin fact base. When you don’t have the facts, you make mistakes. When you make mistakes, people don’t trust you. And when they don’t trust you, they leak—to slow things down, or shut things down.

Advice to Students: Fit, Mission, and Deep Reading
BW: To close, I want to turn this directly to students. How should an ambitious student think about the tradeoff between deep expertise in one region versus being broadly useful? And if you were 19 again trying to build a career in foreign affairs today, what steps would you take?

CH: People need to look in the mirror and decide what they’re good at. If you’re good at solving complex jigsaw puzzles, you might think about the Foreign Service, because this work is complicated.
If you understand that American leadership has been broadly positive—look at the 20th century: two world wars, and none since Americans asserted leadership; the creation of the UN, IMF, World Bank; NATO and other regional structures—that’s an extraordinary record.
If you don’t see it that way—if you only see America as being mistreated by other countries—fine, but maybe you should do something else. If you don’t see why American leadership is important and why it should continue, this probably isn’t the role for you.
And finally: if you’re interested in something, read a book about it. Get deep reading under your belt before you get too attached to strong opinions.

BW: You mention reading. At The Pathway Blog, I usually like to end by asking: if someone wanted to follow your career path, what piece of literature would you recommend?

CH: I’m a big believer in history. People who do best understand patterns of history. So I would crack a number of books.
I don’t have a single “how-to” book for this. It’s a life’s work—not one book.

BW: Ambassador Hill, thank you for your time—this was terrific.
​
CH: Thank you—and good luck. And thanks for doing this. It’s important for your contemporaries to hear these views. We’ve got to do a better job of listening to each other.

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1/3/2026

Consul General Rodolphe Sambou on French Politics, Diplomacy Beyond the Headlines, and Optimism for the Future

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Rodolphe Sambou serves as Consul General of France, overseeing France’s diplomatic presence in Louisiana and the broader region. A career diplomat with postings spanning Europe, the Middle East, the Caribbean, Asia, and Oceania, Sambou represents a tradition of French diplomacy that emphasizes cultural exchange, human security, and sustained engagement well beyond the spotlight of high-level summits.
In this Pathway Blog conversation, Sambou reflects on his path into the French foreign service, the often-misunderstood role of a consul general, the rise of subnational diplomacy, and why optimism—tempered by realism—remains essential in an era of global uncertainty.

This transcript has been lightly edited for clarity.

Entering the Diplomatic Service
Ben Wolf: I’ve long been fascinated by French politics and diplomacy, but without growing up in France the path into diplomatic service can feel opaque. To start us off, could you walk us through your background and what led you to become a consul general? What did that journey actually look like in practice?

Rodolphe Sambou: I’ll try to summarize, although it’s been a long and interesting path. I’m around fifty, and from the beginning I loved travel. I studied languages, science, politics, philosophy, and history, and I spent a great deal of time studying abroad—in Spain, Ireland, Egypt, Israel, and the United States, where I did an internship in New York.
While preparing for the competitive exams required to enter the French foreign service, I worked as a teacher. I taught philosophy at a French immersion school in Egypt. After passing the exam, I joined the foreign service and have now been part of it for about twenty years.
My first assignment was as a desk officer for New Zealand in the Asia–Oceania Department. I then worked on United Nations issues, particularly human rights, and spent several months in New York. After that, I was posted to Haiti for three years, working on political affairs, human rights, and post-earthquake reconstruction. I later served in Thailand as a political officer, during a period of political crisis.
I then became Deputy Head of Mission in New Zealand for four years, returned to Paris as an adviser in the Asia–Pacific Division, and for the past two years I’ve served as Consul General here.

Formative Postings
BW: Looking back, was there an early posting that shaped how you practice diplomacy today, even if it didn’t seem especially formative at the time?

RS: Every posting leaves its mark, but my early work on multilateral issues and human rights was especially formative. Human rights intersect with almost every international issue—women’s rights, the death penalty, labor rights, economic and social rights. That work broadened my perspective and brought me into contact with people from very different backgrounds.
My posting in Haiti was also deeply influential. It was my first assignment in a truly challenging context, following the earthquake. It was practical, concrete, and showed me how diplomacy can directly help people in moments of crisis.

What a Consul General Actually Does
BW: Many Americans imagine diplomacy primarily through ambassadors or foreign ministers. How does the role of a consul general differ from those more familiar positions?

RS: That’s an excellent question. Ambassadors are usually based in capitals and deal primarily with federal authorities. A consul general is typically posted in a region.
We have two broad responsibilities. One is political, economic, and cultural: encouraging investment in France, promoting study in France, explaining French positions to local authorities, and reporting back to Paris on developments in our region.
The other—and perhaps the most visible—is responsibility for the French community. We are responsible for their safety and security. A consulate is almost like a city hall abroad: organizing elections, providing administrative services, assisting citizens in distress, responding to emergencies such as hurricanes, and ensuring consular protection when needed.

The Rise of Subnational Diplomacy
BW: Cities and regions now play a much larger role in international affairs. How has this rise of subnational diplomacy changed your day-to-day work?

RS: We see this very clearly here. Regardless of national-level tensions, regions want international partnerships—economic, educational, cultural. We work with local governments, universities, businesses, NGOs, and artists.
Education is a major pillar of our work. In Louisiana alone, there are more than forty French immersion schools, thousands of students, and teachers sent from France. This kind of cooperation continues regardless of broader geopolitical turbulence. Diplomacy today involves many actors beyond states alone.

Diplomacy in the Age of Instant Information
BW: Is there a diplomatic challenge today that would have been difficult to imagine when you first entered the service?

RS: The speed of information. Events unfold instantly. If something happens overnight—an attack, a natural disaster—we learn about it immediately, often before dawn, and must respond at once. The volume of information and the pace of international engagement are far greater than before, and that is a constant challenge.

Misconceptions About France
BW: Working with American audiences, what misconceptions do you most often encounter about France’s role in the world?

RS: France and the United States have been allies since the very beginning. We know what we owe to each other, and we continue to celebrate that history—from independence to D-Day.
One misconception concerns France’s economic role. France is the most attractive country in Europe for foreign investment, yet this is sometimes overlooked. There are also differences in how we frame issues like freedom of expression or the relationship between state and religion. Our role as diplomats is to explain these differences respectfully, recognizing that our democracies were shaped by distinct histories.

What Diplomats Do Between the Headlines
BW: Diplomacy often appears only at headline moments. How would you explain what diplomacy actually does on an ordinary day?

RS: There’s a stereotype that diplomats spend their time at receptions, but the reality is quite different. We assist citizens in distress, ensure security, and respond to emergencies. We also spend a great deal of time meeting people—cultural leaders, elected officials, business figures, NGOs—to understand local dynamics and create connections.
My day-to-day work involves facilitating dialogue, building partnerships between France and Louisiana, supporting economic and cultural projects, and helping institutions work together. It’s very practical, very human work.

Autonomy and Instructions
BW: How much autonomy do you have versus following instructions from Paris?

RS: We always operate within a framework of guidance from Paris. We receive briefings and instructions regularly—sometimes daily—on issues such as Ukraine, the Middle East, climate, or human rights. Within that framework, we have room to adapt our approach to local realities. A consulate works closely with regional stakeholders, while embassies focus more on federal authorities, but the underlying principles are the same.

Advice for Aspiring Diplomats
BW: For students interested in diplomatic service, what common mistakes do you see—and what advice would you offer?

RS: Curiosity and flexibility are essential. Many students focus narrowly on one region or issue, but diplomacy requires constant learning and adaptability. You are rarely a technical expert; your role is to understand what is at stake, explain it clearly—often in just a few minutes—and help decision-makers act.
Being able to grasp complex issues quickly, communicate clearly, and remain open-minded is far more important than narrow specialization.

Cautious Optimism
BW: In a moment of global uncertainty, what gives you cautious optimism about the future of international cooperation?

RS: There are many reasons to feel pessimistic, but we often say in France that we must combine the pessimism of reason with the optimism of will. Giving up is a form of laziness.
Even when progress is slow—especially in areas like human rights—it is essential to continue fighting for incremental change. Diplomacy is built on persistence. That effort, however difficult, is what ultimately sustains international cooperation.

BW: Mr. Consul General, thank you so much for your time. It’s been a real privilege speaking with you.

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